What percentage of pre decimal currency was reclaimed by the RM post 15.2.1971?

[1949threepence 3,368]

Court estimated  that something like 77% had been reclaimed by 31st March 1972, and although that was specifically in relation to pennies, one would assume by logical extension that similar percentages applied to all other immediately withdrawn denominations. Although people would probably have been in more of a hurry to exchange (or spend pre 15.2.71) halfcrowns, than pennies. 

My own view is that probably something like 85% to 90% of pre decimal currency was eventually reclaimed and melted down by the Royal Mint. But that's purely an inspired guess. It may be +/- 8 of say 86%. Probably a much higher percentage of some than others went for melt. Many will have been held in collections. Many more would have been shoved away in drawers, old clothes, jam jars etc, and forgotten about.   

Any other opinions on this question? I think it's an important one as it may provide some clue as to how many of certain dates/varieties remain extant in the present day.     

[Mr T 189]

I'm sure the mint would have figure - possibly in old coin magazines of the day? Certainly in their annual reports.

There are pretty accurate figures for pre-1937 coinage withdrawal in British West Africa in Vice's book.

[terrysoldpennies 797]

I believe a high percentage of pre. 1946 [ half silver ] and pre. 1920 [ full silver ] was withdrawn much earlier, but whether it was replaced in large quantities by the cupro-nickel before the final withdrawal I don't know.

[Peckris 2 2,211]

5 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Court estimated  that something like 77% had been reclaimed by 31st March 1972, and although that was specifically in relation to pennies, one would assume by logical extension that similar percentages applied to all other immediately withdrawn denominations. Although people would probably have been in more of a hurry to exchange (or spend pre 15.2.71) halfcrowns, than pennies. 

My own view is that probably something like 85% to 90% of pre decimal currency was eventually reclaimed and melted down by the Royal Mint. But that's purely an inspired guess. It may be +/- 8 of say 86%. Probably a much higher percentage of some than others went for melt. Many will have been held in collections. Many more would have been shoved away in drawers, old clothes, jam jars etc, and forgotten about.   

Any other opinions on this question? I think it's an important one as it may provide some clue as to how many of certain dates/varieties remain extant in the present day.     

There are quite a lot of complicating factors:

• most but not all coins containing silver were hoarded or withdrawn much earlier
• the craze for 'modern' began in 1966 with the government announcement of impending decimalisation and the 1967 date freeze : obvious rarities / scarcities were taken out by collectors, though many scarce varieties didn't come to light until after the event, and this applies to all denominations
• halfcrowns and halfpennies were demonetised in 1969; most 1925 and 1930 halfcrowns had long gone, the scarcity of many Unc 1950s halfcrowns only emerged quite late, there would have been few around. Apart from those, they are both denominations notably lacking in rarities
• florins, shillings, and sixpences carried on in circulation until 1992, 1990, and 1980 respectively; probably nearly all still in circulation got withdrawn - higher % than for 1971 I would say as there would have been little interest (and 'of interest') by then
• only pennies and 3d bits were withdrawn in 1971; probably the majority of 3d's were withdrawn as the scarce dates would have been collected. This leaves pennies which as always leave more questions than answers
• finally an unknowable but probably quite substantial (judging from  the many rubbish lots at W&W in the 90s) quantity of postwar predecimals was saved in tins, pots, jars, Whitman folders, cheap albums, boxes, and god knows what else, as keepsakes by non-collectors.

 

[1949threepence 3,368]

51 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

There are quite a lot of complicating factors:

• most but not all coins containing silver were hoarded or withdrawn much earlier
• the craze for 'modern' began in 1966 with the government announcement of impending decimalisation and the 1967 date freeze : obvious rarities / scarcities were taken out by collectors, though many scarce varieties didn't come to light until after the event, and this applies to all denominations
• halfcrowns and halfpennies were demonetised in 1969; most 1925 and 1930 halfcrowns had long gone, the scarcity of many Unc 1950s halfcrowns only emerged quite late, there would have been few around. Apart from those, they are both denominations notably lacking in rarities
• florins, shillings, and sixpences carried on in circulation until 1992, 1990, and 1980 respectively; probably nearly all still in circulation got withdrawn - higher % than for 1971 I would say as there would have been little interest (and 'of interest') by then
• only pennies and 3d bits were withdrawn in 1971; probably the majority of 3d's were withdrawn as the scarce dates would have been collected. This leaves pennies which as always leave more questions than answers
• finally an unknowable but probably quite substantial (judging from  the many rubbish lots at W&W in the 90s) quantity of postwar predecimals was saved in tins, pots, jars, Whitman folders, cheap albums, boxes, and god knows what else, as keepsakes by non-collectors.

 

Thanks - I hadn't realised they went earlier. Elementary, but nonetheless very useful info for those who simply didn't know.

As you say there are many complicating factors, not least the staggered demonetisation which ultimately took place over many years.

It's basically down to guesswork. Although as @Mr T suggests, maybe the RM do have some figures in their annual reports from that time. Pennies would be especially interesting in this regard. 

[1949threepence 3,368]

21 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Thanks - I hadn't realised they went earlier. Elementary, but nonetheless very useful info for those who simply didn't know.

As you say there are many complicating factors, not least the staggered demonetisation which ultimately took place over many years.

It's basically down to guesswork. Although as @Mr T suggests, maybe the RM do have some figures in their annual reports from that time. Pennies would be especially interesting in this regard. 

In fact, let us narrow it down to pennies in particular. If we assume that Court's estimated mintage figures are correct, and we also accept a generous reclamation rate of 90%, that theoretically leaves the following current figures of extant pennies for the following varieties:-

1903 open date - estimated mintage 37,300 - potentially still in existence      3,730 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1905 F 160 - estimated mintage  3,231, 359  - potentially still in existence  323,136 (plausible, but unlikely to be that high)

1908 F164  - estimated mintage  1,166,550   - potentially still in existence  116,655 (plausible, but unlikely to be that high)

1908 F164A  estimated mintage      55, 550   - potentially still in existence      5,555 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1909 F169  - estimated mintage       23,200   - potentially still in existence     2,320 (almost certainly more would have come to light of this extremely rare and sought after variety)

1911 Gouby X - estimated mintage 188,000 -  potentially still in existence      18,800 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1913 F175 -  estimated mintage 1,733,500   - potentially still in existence    173,350 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1913 F176 -  estimated mintage    948,750   - potentially still in existence       94,875 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

So that leaves three possibilities: 1) The reclamation rate was much higher than 90%:  2) Court's figures are incorrect: 3) There are many thousands sitting out there somewhere, still waiting to be discovered.

I find it difficult to accept that Court's figures are that much out, as he was working from a substantial pre melt population, which should be representative of the whole population then still in existence. I also think it highly improbable that there are so many thousands of the rare varieties still sitting out there, given that nearly 50 years have elapsed, several generations have passed, and surely most jam jar/kitchen drawer/garage collections would have been looked at by now, and profits turned, wherever possible. 

That just leaves one possibility - that the RM withdrawal rate of pennies was in fact, ultimately much higher than 90%. Maybe as high as over 99% in many cases, especially on varieties not at that point well known. Moreover, given what I've alluded to previously on this forum, that a fair percentage of F175 & 176, for example, are high grade, it would suggest that they had previously been collected and put away by default, purely as date types. Their much rarer significance having not been known about by the collector at the time.

Very interesting topic and no easy answers.        

 

 

  

 

 

    

[jelida 1,382]

Don’t forget casual losses,  judging by detecting finds, could easily amount to a few per cent, and unofficial melt post decimalisation could also account for many. As you say, the actual numbers available to collectors will be a fraction of many of those estimates.

Jerry

[Zo Arms 314]

I think that the existing bronze population is diminishing daily. Going to melt.

I've read a post from Rob, that he picks out the obvious ones, open 3's, 169's, etc. The rest are melted. 

Paddy advertised back in November, 43kg combined bronze, that , in the end went for melt. All the good stuff being put aside.

As you know, I'll buy bulk via eBay, at slightly above melt price, hoping for something tasty. Generally to no avail. The rest go to melt. I'll not eBay them because I'll end up buying them back at some point, from an ebayer who's doing the same thing.

However, on a positive note, all of the coins that I scrap are washers. Last year, a 275kg lot yielded a Gouby X. Recent lots, a Gouby X and a 164a. That's all. Even these were lower grade coins. Take the F98 I have listed at mo. Best I've found, but is it really of any interest. I doubt it. All the cream has been removed and is in the safe hands of collectors such as yourselves.

I think that the available penny supply is reducing rapidly. 50 years of people sifting through coins and melting their rejects, to recoup their outlay, must have taken a huge toll on the remainder that the RM didn't recycle.

 

[Mr T 189]

8 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

In fact, let us narrow it down to pennies in particular. If we assume that Court's estimated mintage figures are correct, and we also accept a generous reclamation rate of 90%, that theoretically leaves the following current figures of extant pennies for the following varieties:-

1903 open date - estimated mintage 37,300 - potentially still in existence      3,730 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1905 F 160 - estimated mintage  3,231, 359  - potentially still in existence  323,136 (plausible, but unlikely to be that high)

1908 F164  - estimated mintage  1,166,550   - potentially still in existence  116,655 (plausible, but unlikely to be that high)

1908 F164A  estimated mintage      55, 550   - potentially still in existence      5,555 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1909 F169  - estimated mintage       23,200   - potentially still in existence     2,320 (almost certainly more would have come to light of this extremely rare and sought after variety)

1911 Gouby X - estimated mintage 188,000 -  potentially still in existence      18,800 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1913 F175 -  estimated mintage 1,733,500   - potentially still in existence    173,350 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

1913 F176 -  estimated mintage    948,750   - potentially still in existence       94,875 (extremely unlikely to be anywhere near as high)

So that leaves three possibilities: 1) The reclamation rate was much higher than 90%:  2) Court's figures are incorrect: 3) There are many thousands sitting out there somewhere, still waiting to be discovered.

I find it difficult to accept that Court's figures are that much out, as he was working from a substantial pre melt population, which should be representative of the whole population then still in existence. I also think it highly improbable that there are so many thousands of the rare varieties still sitting out there, given that nearly 50 years have elapsed, several generations have passed, and surely most jam jar/kitchen drawer/garage collections would have been looked at by now, and profits turned, wherever possible. 

That just leaves one possibility - that the RM withdrawal rate of pennies was in fact, ultimately much higher than 90%. Maybe as high as over 99% in many cases, especially on varieties not at that point well known. Moreover, given what I've alluded to previously on this forum, that a fair percentage of F175 & 176, for example, are high grade, it would suggest that they had previously been collected and put away by default, purely as date types. Their much rarer significance having not been known about by the collector at the time.

Very interesting topic and no easy answers.

I somehow doubt a reclamation rate of 90% too - from memory the British West African withdrawal rate was around 90% for two shillings coins (the highest rate for any denomination).

I suppose some of the survivors would be too worn to identify (probably not a whole lot though - 60 years of circulation has left plenty of half-decent coins) and I suppose a fair few would have been sent overseas. I'm sure plenty of British pennies ended up in Australia and New Zealand at least and I think the average collector here in Australia isn't too bothered with Freeman numbers.

[ozjohn 696]

I have a bag of  .500 and .925 silver coins weighing close to 1kg taken from circulation. I'm sure lots of other people have hoarded them. 

[1949threepence 3,368]

6 hours ago, Mr T said:

I somehow doubt a reclamation rate of 90% too - from memory the British West African withdrawal rate was around 90% for two shillings coins (the highest rate for any denomination).

I suppose some of the survivors would be too worn to identify (probably not a whole lot though - 60 years of circulation has left plenty of half-decent coins) and I suppose a fair few would have been sent overseas. I'm sure plenty of British pennies ended up in Australia and New Zealand at least and I think the average collector here in Australia isn't too bothered with Freeman numbers.

I definitely think that applies to the F169, where the toothed border is often so worn, it's impossible to determine the type, either way.

[1949threepence 3,368]

13 hours ago, Zo Arms said:

I think that the existing bronze population is diminishing daily. Going to melt.

I've read a post from Rob, that he picks out the obvious ones, open 3's, 169's, etc. The rest are melted. 

Paddy advertised back in November, 43kg combined bronze, that , in the end went for melt. All the good stuff being put aside.

As you know, I'll buy bulk via eBay, at slightly above melt price, hoping for something tasty. Generally to no avail. The rest go to melt. I'll not eBay them because I'll end up buying them back at some point, from an ebayer who's doing the same thing.

However, on a positive note, all of the coins that I scrap are washers. Last year, a 275kg lot yielded a Gouby X. Recent lots, a Gouby X and a 164a. That's all. Even these were lower grade coins. Take the F98 I have listed at mo. Best I've found, but is it really of any interest. I doubt it. All the cream has been removed and is in the safe hands of collectors such as yourselves.

I think that the available penny supply is reducing rapidly. 50 years of people sifting through coins and melting their rejects, to recoup their outlay, must have taken a huge toll on the remainder that the RM didn't recycle.

 

Bob, I think there's a lot in what you say. Those ongoing unofficial melts, plus the lost coins mentioned by Jerry, probably account for a very substantial percentage of the bronze still existing after the RM official melt.    

ETA: I'd also bet that a faIr number of rare varieties have slipped through the net, due to loss of concentration when checking large numbers of coins. It'd be a lot easier to miss varieties when checking for a very few amongst a large number, than it would be when checking and classifying every single one, as Court did.  

So in conclusion, I'd estimate that from the accumulated losses <1% of Court's original estimates now remain extant. Considerably less than 1% in many instances.   

Edited February 9, 2020 by 1949threepence

[jaggy 528]

On 2/9/2020 at 12:50 AM, ozjohn said:

I have a bag of  .500 and .925 silver coins weighing close to 1kg taken from circulation. I'm sure lots of other people have hoarded them. 

I have several bags of old pennies, a lot of GVI and EII sixpences, a piggy bank full of GVI and EII shillings and florins and other odds and sods outwith my 'collectable' coins.  I'm sure that I'm not alone. There is probably a lot more out there than people realise.

Edited February 10, 2020 by jaggy

[Sword 1,538]

On 2/9/2020 at 7:50 AM, ozjohn said:

I have a bag of  .500 and .925 silver coins weighing close to 1kg taken from circulation. I'm sure lots of other people have hoarded them. 

 

4 hours ago, jaggy said:

I have several bags of old pennies, a lot of GVI and EII sixpences, a piggy bank full of GVI and EII shillings and florins and other odds and sods outwith my 'collectable' coins.  I'm sure that I'm not alone. There is probably a lot more out there than people realise.

Why hang on to them if you have so many? I would have got rid of them when the price of silver is high. Would free up some space and some cash.

[Sword 1,538]

One related question I often ask myself is in addition of the percentage of a coinage still in existence, approximately what fraction are still in UNC? For example, for an affordable but somewhat scarce coin like the 1894 halfcrown (with mintage of 1.5 million), would the number of UNC coins today still be in excess of 200?

[1949threepence 3,368]

2 hours ago, Sword said:

One related question I often ask myself is in addition of the percentage of a coinage still in existence, approximately what fraction are still in UNC? For example, for an affordable but somewhat scarce coin like the 1894 halfcrown (with mintage of 1.5 million), would the number of UNC coins today still be in excess of 200?

A related question, and may I say, a very interesting one. The "UNC" percentage seems to vary considerably from coin type to coin type, and although there is obviously some absolute relation to overall rarity, there are some definite real terms differences, which can be difficult to explain.  For example, off the top of my head, amongst the rarest coins there are some, such as the F14 penny, the F8 and F9 mule (all 1860), and the 1862 F38 mule, which seem to have more than you would expect as UNC examples. There are others. Whereas such pennies as the 1864 (plain and crosslet), and the F98 1879 narrow date,  which are not that desperately rare in lower grades, are extremely difficult to locate in top grade. The F90 1877 narrow date penny, which is roughly on a rarity par with the F8 & F38 mules, has nothing above fine among its ranks.

Obviously I'm talking exclusively pennies here, as it's my specialism, but the same principles must apply across the board.

In some cases I think there are more UNC specimens available because they were collected by default shortly after mintage, as part of a date run (the collector having no idea of the coin's significance at that time). In other cases, it's very difficult to know the precise reasons for either a surplus or deficit of UNC examples. I imagine we never will and are left to speculate.           

[Peckris 2 2,211]

31 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

A related question, and may I say, a very interesting one. The "UNC" percentage seems to vary considerably from coin type to coin type, and although there is obviously some absolute relation to overall rarity, there are some definite real terms differences, which can be difficult to explain.  For example, off the top of my head, amongst the rarest coins there are some, such as the F14 penny, the F8 and F9 mule (all 1860), and the 1862 F38 mule, which seem to have more than you would expect as UNC examples. There are others. Whereas such pennies as the 1864 (plain and crosslet), and the F98 1879 narrow date,  which are not that desperately rare in lower grades, are extremely difficult to locate in top grade. The F90 1877 narrow date penny, which is roughly on a rarity par with the F8 & F38 mules, has nothing above fine among its ranks.

Obviously I'm talking exclusively pennies here, as it's my specialism, but the same principles must apply across the board.

In some cases I think there are more UNC specimens available because they were collected by default shortly after mintage, as part of a date run (the collector having no idea of the coin's significance at that time). In other cases, it's very difficult to know the precise reasons for either a surplus or deficit of UNC examples. I imagine we never will and are left to speculate.           

One factor I neglected to include in my list is the number of dealers who "invested" in RM mint bags, which may still be  partly around, but only of 60s dates.

Penny varieties are an intriguing story; though many of them were described in Peck most collectors didn't have access to that expensive resource, and Freeman was only published not long before decimalisation. My theory is that these got melted in direct proportion to the mintage.

[Sword 1,538]

1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

I imagine we never will and are left to speculate.           

For silver, I guess George III crowns are not difficult to find in near UNC condition as they were delivered to the banks warped individually in soft paper. The crown had not been minted for such a long time and many people wanted to save an example. 

Young Head crowns are very rare and expensive in UNC. There is a big price difference between EF and VF also; VF or below are common. I guess the limited mintage coupled with the large number of years in circulation before the Jubilee and Old Head kicking in have created many worn examples. 

I can understand why the 1887 crowns are common in UNC because it was the first year of mintage and it commemorated Victoria's Golden Jubilee which was an important event. But I am rather surprised why the later years of the Jubilee crowns are still relative common in UNC given so many books have commented on the unpopularity of the design. Why save something that's unpopular?

Edited February 11, 2020 by Sword

[jaggy 528]

4 hours ago, Sword said:

 

Why hang on to them if you have so many? I would have got rid of them when the price of silver is high. Would free up some space and some cash.

I like them and I don't need the money.

[Sword 1,538]

Fair enough 🙂 

[1949threepence 3,368]

1 hour ago, Peckris 2 said:

One factor I neglected to include in my list is the number of dealers who "invested" in RM mint bags, which may still be  partly around, but only of 60s dates.

Penny varieties are an intriguing story; though many of them were described in Peck most collectors didn't have access to that expensive resource, and Freeman was only published not long before decimalisation. My theory is that these got melted in direct proportion to the mintage.

Unless they were collected (eg: the H's KN's and ME's of this world) absolutely. The vast majority would have been totally unaware, for example, of many varietal types of Edward VII and George V & VI. Hence, as I referenced in an earlier post, why some which are now extremely rare, were never collected pre demonetisation. Some weren't identified until Freeman's time, and the enthusiastic collectors of the mid to late 60's were probably using those small "Check your Change" booklets, which, whilst obviously very useful, did not cover the lesser known varieties. So they nearly all disappeared in the melt and probably many more in the subsequent unofficial melts which still go on to this day.    

Having now got nearly a full complement of Coin Monthly's from November 1966 to February 1971, it's also noteworthy that there is absolutely no mention whatsoever, in the sales ads, of many of the 20th century Freeman types we now know so well. A 1913 penny, for instance, was a 1913 penny. No more than that.    

[Peckris 2 2,211]

23 hours ago, Sword said:

I can understand why the 1887 crowns are common in UNC because it was the first year of mintage and it commemorated Victoria's Golden Jubilee which was an important event. But I am rather surprised why the later years of the Jubilee crowns are still relative common in UNC given so many books have commented on the unpopularity of the design. Why save something that's unpopular?

 

I think it's down to crown collectors. Quite possibly a large number didn't get into circulation. As for the unpopularity of the design, that would have mattered less to collectors than to the spending public whose views on the currency carried more weight.

 

22 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Unless they were collected (eg: the H's KN's and ME's of this world) absolutely. The vast majority would have been totally unaware, for example, of many varietal types of Edward VII and George V & VI. Hence, as I referenced in an earlier post, why some which are now extremely rare, were never collected pre demonetisation. Some weren't identified until Freeman's time, and the enthusiastic collectors of the mid to late 60's were probably using those small "Check your Change" booklets, which, whilst obviously very useful, did not cover the lesser known varieties. So they nearly all disappeared in the melt and probably many more in the subsequent unofficial melts which still go on to this day.    

Having now got nearly a full complement of Coin Monthly's from November 1966 to February 1971, it's also noteworthy that there is absolutely no mention whatsoever, in the sales ads, of many of the 20th century Freeman types we now know so well. A 1913 penny, for instance, was a 1913 penny. No more than that.    

 

The 1968 booklet barely mentions ANY varieties.

As to 1913 pennies, I'd think there are still plenty of dealers who don't make a distinction?

[1949threepence 3,368]

9 minutes ago, Peckris 2 said:

 

I think it's down to crown collectors. Quite possibly a large number didn't get into circulation. As for the unpopularity of the design, that would have mattered less to collectors than to the spending public whose views on the currency carried more weight.

 

 

The 1968 booklet barely mentions ANY varieties.

As to 1913 pennies, I'd think there are still plenty of dealers who don't make a distinction?

Probably. 

Ingram and Ingram definitely.

The booklet mentions the LT, H's, KN's & the ME. Undoubtedly they got hoarded.  

 

[Peckris 2 2,211]

Just now, 1949threepence said:

The booklet mentions the LT, H's, KN's & the ME. Undoubtedly they got hoarded. 

Yes. Ironic that there is nothing scarce about 1902LT or  1912H pennies.

[ozjohn 696]

On 2/11/2020 at 9:13 AM, Sword said:

For silver, I guess George III crowns are not difficult to find in near UNC condition as they were delivered to the banks warped individually in soft paper. The crown had not been minted for such a long time and many people wanted to save an example. 

Young Head crowns are very rare and expensive in UNC. There is a big price difference between EF and VF also; VF or below are common. I guess the limited mintage coupled with the large number of years in circulation before the Jubilee and Old Head kicking in have created many worn examples. 

I can understand why the 1887 crowns are common in UNC because it was the first year of mintage and it commemorated Victoria's Golden Jubilee which was an important event. But I am rather surprised why the later years of the Jubilee crowns are still relative common in UNC given so many books have commented on the unpopularity of the design. Why save something that's unpopular?

Perhaps people liked the reverse George and Dragon design as it was reintroduced after a gap of several years on crowns  The one on sovereigns was a bit small and not many people had sovereigns. Personally I quite like the jubilee effigy of the queen  which also reflects the belle epoque  period of the time

Edited February 12, 2020 by ozjohn