Coin prices continue to rise

[1949threepence 3,368]

Not done any exact analysis, but purely from observation, and ball park estimate, I'd say that even in the last 2 or 3 years, prices have increased at all levels of the market. For example, what was £180 in 2020, is now about £240. Quite ordinary, or not desperately uncommon pennies are now routinely being offered at £200 plus. Although there are still bargains to be had.

One exact price I did notice was when looking at the change in prices for 1839 proof pennies last night, on Noonans site. I noticed that over the years three separate complete 1839 proof sets had been offered (with the Una and the Lion £5 piece included). In 2004, one went for £16,000. A year or two later, another went for £23,000. Then in 2011, yet another went for £60,000. But at the Noble auction last July - in the Verene Collection of proofs - just the Una and the Lion £5 coin itself went for £421,000 (converted from Australian dollar exchange rate). That is a staggering increase which is way beyond inflation. 

How long will this continue? Maybe - very probably in fact - coins are seen as a safe haven in these economically turbulent times. Especially rare gold maybe.

[1949threepence 3,368]

Incidentally, with specific regard to the 1839 proof penny itself, I couldn't help noticing that the majority are not in especially good nick. Often spotted and scruffy looking, with a few quite distinctly impaired.  

Of course, this is one date you can be certain they are all proofs, and not currency strikes masquerading as proofs.

[Peckris 2 2,156]

11 minutes ago, 1949threepence said:

Not done any exact analysis, but purely from observation, and ball park estimate, I'd say that even in the last 2 or 3 years, prices have increased at all levels of the market. For example, what was £180 in 2020, is now about £240. Quite ordinary, or not desperately uncommon pennies are now routinely being offered at £200 plus. Although there are still bargains to be had.

One exact price I did notice was when looking at the change in prices for 1839 proof pennies last night, on Noonans site. I noticed that over the years three separate complete 1839 proof sets had been offered (with the Una and the Lion £5 piece included). In 2004, one went for £16,000. A year or two later, another went for £23,000. Then in 2011, yet another went for £60,000. But at the Noble auction last July - in the Verene Collection of proofs - just the Una and the Lion £5 coin itself went for £421,000 (converted from Australian dollar exchange rate). That is a staggering increase which is way beyond inflation. 

How long will this continue? Maybe - very probably in fact - coins are seen as a safe haven in these economically turbulent times. Especially rare gold maybe.

This has happened before in times of high inflation - specifically the mid-70s; a few years later prices had fallen back again, thought not to the levels of the immediate post-decimal collapse.

[Bruce 193]

2 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Not done any exact analysis, but purely from observation, and ball park estimate, I'd say that even in the last 2 or 3 years, prices have increased at all levels of the market. For example, what was £180 in 2020, is now about £240. Quite ordinary, or not desperately uncommon pennies are now routinely being offered at £200 plus. Although there are still bargains to be had.

One exact price I did notice was when looking at the change in prices for 1839 proof pennies last night, on Noonans site. I noticed that over the years three separate complete 1839 proof sets had been offered (with the Una and the Lion £5 piece included). In 2004, one went for £16,000. A year or two later, another went for £23,000. Then in 2011, yet another went for £60,000. But at the Noble auction last July - in the Verene Collection of proofs - just the Una and the Lion £5 coin itself went for £421,000 (converted from Australian dollar exchange rate). That is a staggering increase which is way beyond inflation. 

How long will this continue? Maybe - very probably in fact - coins are seen as a safe haven in these economically turbulent times. Especially rare gold maybe.

Agree, for much ordinary or normal item also the same.  I remember 1953 proof set was only £50 around years ago, and now it costs £100 around for a set.

[oldcopper 286]

11 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

Not done any exact analysis, but purely from observation, and ball park estimate, I'd say that even in the last 2 or 3 years, prices have increased at all levels of the market. For example, what was £180 in 2020, is now about £240. Quite ordinary, or not desperately uncommon pennies are now routinely being offered at £200 plus. Although there are still bargains to be had.

One exact price I did notice was when looking at the change in prices for 1839 proof pennies last night, on Noonans site. I noticed that over the years three separate complete 1839 proof sets had been offered (with the Una and the Lion £5 piece included). In 2004, one went for £16,000. A year or two later, another went for £23,000. Then in 2011, yet another went for £60,000. But at the Noble auction last July - in the Verene Collection of proofs - just the Una and the Lion £5 coin itself went for £421,000 (converted from Australian dollar exchange rate). That is a staggering increase which is way beyond inflation. 

How long will this continue? Maybe - very probably in fact - coins are seen as a safe haven in these economically turbulent times. Especially rare gold maybe.

Yes, back in 2004 DNW had nice examples of all 3 main early proof sets in one catalogue, and all went for £11-20/25K'ish. Where's that time machine!!

[1949threepence 3,368]

1 hour ago, oldcopper said:

Yes, back in 2004 DNW had nice examples of all 3 main early proof sets in one catalogue, and all went for £11-20/25K'ish. Where's that time machine!!

What an investment one of those would have been........ 

[Peckris 2 2,156]

4 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

What an investment one of those would have been........ 

I remember toying with the idea of buying a few sovs in 1998 when the bullion price was down to £55. WHY DIDN'T I...

[copper123 1,528]

Coins or to be correct the top 1% of the coin market are still popular without any sign of a price bubble occuring , hammered tudor is a fave for many , the mainstream of the market and rare varieties have faired less well with varieties barely moving and the more mainstream £20-£100 coins the mainstay of most collections just edgeing up slowly , except of course for gold which now seems ever popular.

Bronze from the early Victoria years esp pennies is ever popular

All dealers at coin fairs endlessly complain about few decent coins being offered for sale with many complaining they cannot make a decent profit with the coins they are offered.

While the chance to buy many coins at a reasonable price has gone , the challenge remains to spot the sleepers in todays market , any ideas anyone?

Edited March 29, 2023 by copper123

[Rob 3,172]

On the basis that every dog has its day, choose anything relatively unpopular. Silver threepences, maundy, halfpennies, farthings or anything small. Larger things are always popular because they are easier for people with bad eyesight to see. Two that are unlikely to become popular are quarter guineas and double florins (milled only) given there are only 3 and 13 varieties to complete a collection respectively.

[1949threepence 3,368]

2 hours ago, copper123 said:

Coins or to be correct the top 1% of the coin market are still popular without any sign of a price bubble occuring , hammered tudor is a fave for many , the mainstream of the market and rare varieties have faired less well with varieties barely moving and the more mainstream £20-£100 coins the mainstay of most collections just edgeing up slowly , except of course for gold which now seems ever popular.

Bronze from the early Victoria years esp pennies is ever popular

All dealers at coin fairs endlessly complain about few decent coins being offered for sale with many complaining they cannot make a decent profit with the coins they are offered.

While the chance to buy many coins at a reasonable price has gone , the challenge remains to spot the sleepers in todays market , any ideas anyone?

That seems very true. There are some varieties - not the true rarities - that you should theoretically be able to, but in practice just cannot get in high grade. No matter how wealthy you may be, they just aren't coming up for sale. In many cases I would like to upgrade, but can't.

In the penny (currency) range, I'd cite:-

1843 (with or without colon)

1845 (only with great patience)

1849 (only with great patience, and at great cost)

1856 OT - never seen one for sale in high grade. Mine is fine only and no more than a gap filler.  

1860 F 14, F16, F17 (got all three in high grade, from a number of years ago, but only one occasion for each in now 12 years, and opportunities taken, not seen any since). 

1861 F18, F20, F25. (got all three, but the F20, fine only) - the F18 EF courtesy of a private sale by Ian Fall, and the F25 from the Hiram Brown sale Feb 2020 GEF with lustre (for £1200 hammer)  

1864 plain 4 - got a VF specimen bought in 2012. Not seen a better one on offer since 

1874 F68, F77, F78 (got all three, the F77 courtesy of a private sale by Ian Fall, the F78 GVF, and the F68 EF, but looks as though it's been scratched along the pavement under someone's foot. Would like to upgrade the F68 & F78, but again, they don't come up. 

1879 narrow date - one only seen and bought from DNW September 2018. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by 1949threepence
detail added for clarity

[Menger 95]

No doubt some of the price rise since the onset of Covid reflects the liquidity that was pumped into the system - some of that rise will go out with the tide. 

Longer term, I expect an evermore virtual world will create more demand for irreplaceable artifacts from the old world - like coins. 

I also expect the price gap between top quality and the rest will widen as technology connects more demand to a fairly static and scarce supply. 

The great arbitrage will be to recognize the quality that the grading companies miss: this may be technical (under-grading) or rare varieties (that TPG does not yet recognize) or the current undervaluation of particularly “nice” coins that are below the radar of TPG (based on a purely technical grade) - but may well be validated by future technologies that have more nuance (such as AI). 
 

The future is a crack-out. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Menger

[Martinminerva 345]

52 minutes ago, Menger said:

but may well be validated by future technologies that have more nuance (such as AI). 

Please not! I prefer to rely on RI (real intelligence) and my human nuance - if I like the look of a coin and want to buy it, I will buy it. If not, I won't.  I do not need to be "told" what grade a British coin is by a (frequently) American TPG, and even less so by some future computer algorithm.

Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

Edited March 30, 2023 by Martinminerva

[Menger 95]

14 minutes ago, Martinminerva said:

Please not! I prefer to rely on RI (real intelligence) and my human nuance - if I like the look of a coin and want to buy it, I will buy it. If not, I won't.  I do not need to be "told" what grade a British coin is by a (frequently) American TPG, and even less so by some future computer algorithm.

 Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

Yes. It was. 

It is also a comment on price - and whether price fairly reflects value. With TPG, there is clearly a gap: the market wants TPG (it reduces risk) but TPG often misses value (such as “nice” coins - or coins that some British collector thinks deserve a better grade). That creates an arbitrage opportunity for you to use your noggin and exploit - but in time I expect technology will close the gap and price will more correctly reflect value. That will be good for everyone. 
 

The future will be a crack-out. 

Edited March 30, 2023 by Menger

[1949threepence 3,368]

17 minutes ago, Martinminerva said:

Please not! I prefer to rely on RI (real intelligence) and my human nuance - if I like the look of a coin and want to buy it, I will buy it. If not, I won't.  I do not need to be "told" what grade a British coin is by a (frequently) American TPG, and even less so by some future computer algorithm.

Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

From what I've seen of AI so far, it's utter rubbish. We have it at work for certain very routine operations, and it was initially touted as the best thing since sliced bread, since it would supposedly take away the need for us to do most of those humdrum repetitive tasks, and we'd be able to reduce staff. Well guess what, it can only operate succesfully between two very narrow parameters of simplicity. Anything even a tiny bit out of the ordinary, leads to that now all too familar note in the case diaries: "robotics failed". Scans of these are being dished out to staff for them to clear manually. 

With any sort of chat function, such as on a bank website, the "Hello, I'm Robbie the robot, how can I help today" type "assistance", can only ever handle the very simplest of enquiries. Most queries a customer has, it cannot even hope to comprehend. So inevitably you get transferred to a live agent.

As far as algorithms, if they're anything like the ones on facebook, for example, they get stuck on the difference between a legitimate dictionary word used in its proper sense, and the same word as racial abuse, for example. Using the term "a chink in the armour" gave me a 3 day ban for race hate - the offending word being "chink". It's pathetic.   

I dread to think what might happen if TPG is given over to AI.    

[blakeyboy 1,765]

2 hours ago, Martinminerva said:

Please not! I prefer to rely on RI (real intelligence) and my human nuance - if I like the look of a coin and want to buy it, I will buy it. If not, I won't.  I do not need to be "told" what grade a British coin is by a (frequently) American TPG, and even less so by some future computer algorithm.

Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

'Post of the Month' , mate.

 

 

[Martinminerva 345]

3 hours ago, Menger said:

3 hours ago, Martinminerva said:

Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

Yes. It was. 

I meant my post!

Or do I ?? Error 404 resource not found bang crash spark... Highly illogical, captain...

[Martinminerva 345]

1 hour ago, blakeyboy said:

3 hours ago, Martinminerva said:

Please not! I prefer to rely on RI (real intelligence) and my human nuance - if I like the look of a coin and want to buy it, I will buy it. If not, I won't.  I do not need to be "told" what grade a British coin is by a (frequently) American TPG, and even less so by some future computer algorithm.

Or was this post created by ChatGPT? 😏

'Post of the Month' , mate.

Cheers! I am sure I am not the only one who laments the rise of TPGs.... God help us if there's a rise in "Coin AI" or similar. Maybe Bitcoin and the like will be collected in the future instead of all these pointless bits of copper, silver and gold? 😏

[Peckris 2 2,156]

5 hours ago, 1949threepence said:

From what I've seen of AI so far, it's utter rubbish. We have it at work for certain very routine operations, and it was initially touted as the best thing since sliced bread, since it would supposedly take away the need for us to do most of those humdrum repetitive tasks, and we'd be able to reduce staff. Well guess what, it can only operate succesfully between two very narrow parameters of simplicity. Anything even a tiny bit out of the ordinary, leads to that now all too familar note in the case diaries: "robotics failed". Scans of these are being dished out to staff for them to clear manually. 

With any sort of chat function, such as on a bank website, the "Hello, I'm Robbie the robot, how can I help today" type "assistance", can only ever handle the very simplest of enquiries. Most queries a customer has, it cannot even hope to comprehend. So inevitably you get transferred to a live agent.

As far as algorithms, if they're anything like the ones on facebook, for example, they get stuck on the difference between a legitimate dictionary word used in its proper sense, and the same word as racial abuse, for example. Using the term "a chink in the armour" gave me a 3 day ban for race hate - the offending word being "chink". It's pathetic.   

I dread to think what might happen if TPG is given over to AI.    

100% agreed. How can a 'thing' that doesn't have any consciousness or self-awareness match even the most stupid employee of a TPG? As for 'chat bots' on websites, you can express the problem clearly and get a somewhat irrelevant reply. So you express it in a different way and get the same useless reply. My instinct is to say "connect me to a human being" right at the start and repeat it as many times as it takes for Robbectomy to understand and put me through to someone who is actually alive.

Yeah, I agree about Facebook. Someone in a conversation mentioned the motto over the gates of Auschwitz but gave it in English; I merely expanded that by saying the original was ARBEIT MACHT FREI - result? A 24 hour ban for 'hate speech'.

[blakeyboy 1,765]

You can find stupid price hikes in 1970's Fords. 

I have to deal with mad prices everyday - doing vintage studio gear is sometimes very odd,

The prices people are paying for anything from microphones to complete consoles are through the roof,

in many instances making coin price rises look unremarkable. I think this time the prices will fall back slightly

once people stop acing like headless chickens. It's already happening in the classic car market with some models,

with the Austin Healey 3000, for example, dropping back from mad heights as people realised the price was just too much.....

[1949threepence 3,368]

1 hour ago, Peckris 2 said:

100% agreed. How can a 'thing' that doesn't have any consciousness or self-awareness match even the most stupid employee of a TPG? As for 'chat bots' on websites, you can express the problem clearly and get a somewhat irrelevant reply. So you express it in a different way and get the same useless reply. My instinct is to say "connect me to a human being" right at the start and repeat it as many times as it takes for Robbectomy to understand and put me through to someone who is actually alive.

Yeah, I agree about Facebook. Someone in a conversation mentioned the motto over the gates of Auschwitz but gave it in English; I merely expanded that by saying the original was ARBEIT MACHT FREI - result? A 24 hour ban for 'hate speech'.

Indeed, that's another variation of the same thing. You can't use a phrase like that descriptively. 

 

[Rob 3,172]

1 hour ago, 1949threepence said:

Indeed, that's another variation of the same thing. You can't use a phrase like that descriptively. 

 

If you went to a restaurant and got refused entry, you wouldn't go back a second time. So why use Facebook if it is policed by a robot you can't discuss problems with?  The internet is littered with 'Scunthorpe' problems and analogues thereof. 

[1949threepence 3,368]

9 hours ago, Rob said:

If you went to a restaurant and got refused entry, you wouldn't go back a second time. So why use Facebook if it is policed by a robot you can't discuss problems with?  The internet is littered with 'Scunthorpe' problems and analogues thereof. 

Probably because the benefit of discussions outweigh the idiocy of the system they operate under.  

[copper123 1,528]

12 hours ago, Rob said:

If you went to a restaurant and got refused entry, you wouldn't go back a second time. So why use Facebook if it is policed by a robot you can't discuss problems with?  The internet is littered with 'Scunthorpe' problems and analogues thereof. 

why bother with it at all ,I don't and feel i am missing nothing.

Discussing with bots is not something I need in my life , its bad enough with "Unexpected item in bagging area"

Edited March 31, 2023 by copper123

[Rob 3,172]

So what happens on Facebook when you are discussing Negro's Head marked coins? Anyone young and brought up in today's PC world might acquire a ticket with NH in the future and not be able to ask the question and get an answer to what it means without being blocked. 

People need to stop being offended on behalf of others, who, if they have half a brain will recognise that the offence is caused by context, and not just the use of any particular word(s).

Science is going to suffer too. Stefan's Law will have to be explained in some other way, so good luck with that one.

[Martinminerva 345]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

who, if they have half a brain...

And herein lies the whole problem, both with today's general populace and with any AI or algorithm. 😀