2010 Coin Forecast

[Coppers 58]

Article by one of our own forum members posted on

CoinLink

[1949threepence 3,367]

Very interesting article for the coin investor, Coppers. Thanks for that.

Numismatics seems to be increasing in popularity, and prices will inevitably continue to rise. Of course, old coins are a finite market, and those remaining high grade coins drawn out of trading "circulation" by serious collectors, who will not trade further, will further reduce the available stock of quality items.

It seems to me that it's more important than ever to get your hands on as high grade coin as possible, whatever your particular era and/or denomination of interest. Get them while you can.

Let's hope that our market is not take over by the American market, nor that it goes the same way. Otherwise prices really will rocket.

Edited November 23, 2009 by 1949threepence

[Rob 3,152]

As a significant participant who helped kick off the current steep upward trend at the Slaney sale in 2003 with his purchase of the Petition Crown, I hope he is not forecasting the future based on insider knowledge of his forthcoming purchases. I was hoping that my nemesis on more than one occasion was taking a really long and well earned break. Twenty years should suffice.

[Peckris 579]

As a student of coin prices, particularly modern coins, I'm always interested to read these sort of articles. In my own coins database, I have one layout devoted entirely to Seaby/Spink prices over the years : 1966, 1969, 1980, 1985, 1997/8, and more or less biannually since 2000. (I'm missing the mid-70s, and trying to track down a 1976 Seabys; there is no need to have anything from 1985 to 1997 as there was a long period of stagnation in values, partly caused by Seabys becoming a bit out of touch with the real markets).

From all this data, I can show that the grade that has performed least well over time is VF. This may be due to collectors falling into two broad groups : those who buy the very best (EF or better) and those who are 'completists' making date runs etc, who are more likely to push up the Fine coins more. But it may also be because the VF grade itself has slipped relative to other grades since those stricter times in the 1960s/70s. Back then, the top grades Unc EF and VF clustered together with only quite small differences between them; then there was a huge gap down to Fine. These days it is more of an even spread below EF, from which I have to conclude that the modern VF is slightly worse than the VF of yore.

However it is true to say that buying the very best you can afford will not be a bad policy, and never has been (unless you were buying 1950/1951 pennies for "investment" in the 1960s ). It is equally true to say that it is impossible to predict the next trend / fad / fashion, in coins as in everything else.

[Peter 615]

I have a comprehensive mass of coin mags/publications etc going back to the 60's.

Here are some of the biggest pups sold.

1960 LIZ crown including polished dies OOps

All h & kn 1d's

Basically all the published key date modern coins (who wants 40+ 1959 scottish 1/- as an aside).

The coins that have done better are the common pre 19C silver issues (1746 lima 2/6, 1758 1/- common Annes 1711 etc) These were cheap but have become desirable.

There are still underpriced bargains out there....I just know especially 1/4ds as some dates Ebay,fairs,dealers just don,t have any stock.

know your market.

I'm going to make some silly purchases's over the next few years ( A couple of 1771 types,1860 mule' 1874 both G's over etc to complete my collection) but these will hopefully be funded by other dealings.

[Peckris 579]

I have a comprehensive mass of coin mags/publications etc going back to the 60's.

Here are some of the biggest pups sold.

1960 LIZ crown including polished dies OOps

All h & kn 1d's

Basically all the published key date modern coins (who wants 40+ 1959 scottish 1/- as an aside).

The coins that have done better are the common pre 19C silver issues (1746 lima 2/6, 1758 1/- common Annes 1711 etc) These were cheap but have become desirable.

There are still underpriced bargains out there....I just know especially 1/4ds as some dates Ebay,fairs,dealers just don,t have any stock.

know your market.

I'm going to make some silly purchases's over the next few years ( A couple of 1771 types,1860 mule' 1874 both G's over etc to complete my collection) but these will hopefully be funded by other dealings.

You have the 1915 Obverse 1 farthing?

[Peter 615]

I have a comprehensive mass of coin mags/publications etc going back to the 60's.

Here are some of the biggest pups sold.

1960 LIZ crown including polished dies OOps

All h & kn 1d's

Basically all the published key date modern coins (who wants 40+ 1959 scottish 1/- as an aside).

The coins that have done better are the common pre 19C silver issues (1746 lima 2/6, 1758 1/- common Annes 1711 etc) These were cheap but have become desirable.

There are still underpriced bargains out there....I just know especially 1/4ds as some dates Ebay,fairs,dealers just don,t have any stock.

know your market.

I'm going to make some silly purchases's over the next few years ( A couple of 1771 types,1860 mule' 1874 both G's over etc to complete my collection) but these will hopefully be funded by other dealings.

You have the 1915 Obverse 1 farthing?

No I haven't got the closed TT version.

It hasn't quite reached superstar status.

I do have the coin monthly when this variety was 1st mentioned (letter to the editor).

I'm not sure about rareity because it is quite difficult to spot (Ebay pictures are not usually good enough to ID from).

As an aside 1915 regardless in high grade is / was difficult.

Colins aboutfarthings site has listed many new varieties....if an encyclopedia is ever produced the market will boom....get in there now.

[Peckris 579]

No I haven't got the closed TT version.

It hasn't quite reached superstar status.

I do have the coin monthly when this variety was 1st mentioned (letter to the editor).

I'm not sure about rareity because it is quite difficult to spot (Ebay pictures are not usually good enough to ID from).

As an aside 1915 regardless in high grade is / was difficult.

Colins aboutfarthings site has listed many new varieties....if an encyclopedia is ever produced the market will boom....get in there now.

I know - but Colin's site doesn't yet have a picture of the 1915 TT variety. As for its rarity, I've examined quite a lot of 1915s in my time, and my own example is the only one I've ever seen. So far, I've never seen one on eBay, nor on Colin Cooke, nor on Michael Gouby's site, though the latter two I've only been inspecting this year.

The pointings do make it much easier to spot - there are about half a dozen points (at least) where something is to a tooth instead of a gap, or vice versa. And you only need to compare a 1911 with a 1917 to get the differences.

I agree, it hasn't reached superstar status, but I'm tempted to suggest it might be quite as rare as the 1874H Gs over sideways (that's a guess only though).

I'd love a scan of that Coin Monthly letter if you were able to upload it for me?

[Peter 615]

Next to my bed I have a pile of old coin monthlies which often send me to sleep (next to my Jazz mags )

I will try and find the letter over the next few evenings.

I have put post it notes on all the interesting articles and I'm sure I did this one.

There were a couple in Colincookes sales...The Oxford collection....which on the face of it went cheaply.

I received my mint darkened 1918 today (delivered 1.99) and the condition AU is spot on...happy days.

[Bronze & Copper Collector 412]

Here is a comparison of both 1915 farthing obverses.......

Note to Colin: If you need an image of the F-593A for your website, feel free to use this one if you like.....

[RLC35 288]

Here is a comparison of both 1915 farthing obverses.......

Note to Colin: If you need an image of the F-593A for your website, feel free to use this one if you like.....

B&C, Thanks for posting the 1915. That is the first one of those I have ever actually seen, although I have read about them in publications.

BTW...are you going to the NYIN Convention in New York City, on 1/7-1/10? That is one of the few big shows I have never been too, so I might try to make it this year.

[Bronze & Copper Collector 412]

BTW...are you going to the NYIN Convention in New York City, on 1/7-1/10? That is one of the few big shows I have never been too, so I might try to make it this year.

I usually try to attend either on Thursday or Friday.... But I'm sure that we an work something out to meet.... Maybe all forum members attending can meet there at some point.....

[Gary D 76]

I prefer to use the I of DIE to tell them apart as I find using the TT I need the coins in hand to tell the difference. The close T has the I to tooth and the wide T the I to gap.

Here's mine.

[Peckris 579]

Next to my bed I have a pile of old coin monthlies which often send me to sleep (next to my Jazz mags )

I will try and find the letter over the next few evenings.

I have put post it notes on all the interesting articles and I'm sure I did this one.

There were a couple in Colincookes sales...The Oxford collection....which on the face of it went cheaply.

I received my mint darkened 1918 today (delivered 1.99) and the condition AU is spot on...happy days.

Thanks for that Peter. I had a look at CC's Oxford Collection results : £475 for a nBU example, not what I'd call "cheap"! Even the GVF went for £120 (I suspect it might fetch more than that now - there isn't a whole heap of difference between those two examples in the Oxford sale).

Here's mine (thanks to this post I've now seen 5 times as many as I had in my life up to now!) :

"If anyone can (botch your pictures with their terrible scanners), Canon can"

[Peter 615]

I prefer to use the I of DIE to tell them apart as I find using the TT I need the coins in hand to tell the difference. The close T has the I to tooth and the wide T the I to gap.

Here's mine.

Thanks for that Gary....I will hunt one down.

Peck... if you PM me with your Email address I will send you the letter (Pdf)from the April 1979 coin monthly.

Its just an observation when a couple of examples are referred to.

[RLC35 288]

BTW...are you going to the NYIN Convention in New York City, on 1/7-1/10? That is one of the few big shows I have never been too, so I might try to make it this year.

I usually try to attend either on Thursday or Friday.... But I'm sure that we an work something out to meet.... Maybe all forum members attending can meet there at some point.....

As the time gets nearer for the show, I'll check with you, for when you are going to attend, and maybe more of the Forum can also make a connection, at the same time. I've still got to decide if I am going to attend, but at this point there is a good chance.

[Bronze & Copper Collector 412]

BTW...are you going to the NYIN Convention in New York City, on 1/7-1/10? That is one of the few big shows I have never been too, so I might try to make it this year.

I usually try to attend either on Thursday or Friday.... But I'm sure that we an work something out to meet.... Maybe all forum members attending can meet there at some point.....

As the time gets nearer for the show, I'll check with you, for when you are going to attend, and maybe more of the Forum can also make a connection, at the same time. I've still got to decide if I am going to attend, but at this point there is a good chance.

Sounds like a plan to me......

Edited November 27, 2009 by Bronze & Copper Collector

[Gary D 76]

Next to my bed I have a pile of old coin monthlies which often send me to sleep (next to my Jazz mags )

I will try and find the letter over the next few evenings.

I have put post it notes on all the interesting articles and I'm sure I did this one.

There were a couple in Colincookes sales...The Oxford collection....which on the face of it went cheaply.

I received my mint darkened 1918 today (delivered 1.99) and the condition AU is spot on...happy days.

Thanks for that Peter. I had a look at CC's Oxford Collection results : £475 for a nBU example, not what I'd call "cheap"! Even the GVF went for £120 (I suspect it might fetch more than that now - there isn't a whole heap of difference between those two examples in the Oxford sale).

Here's mine (thanks to this post I've now seen 5 times as many as I had in my life up to now!) :

"If anyone can (botch your pictures with their terrible scanners), Canon can"

£120 for a GVF, I paid £107 for my GEF at one of London Coins Dublin Auctions a couple of years ago.