What if any does the lack of new material hav on the market?

[petitioncrown 4]

Hi Members

I am interested to understand your opinions on a number if topics concerning the future of our hobby

What effect the internet is having on our coin collecting habits?

Are prices moving due to supply and demand or dealers understand that the market has a number of new collectors that do not understand our grading which opens a new window of opportunity?

What is really driving prices the lack of material or dealers?

Regards

www.petitioncrown.com

[Hussulo 6]

What effect the internet is having on our coin collecting habits?

Well I've noticed that buying gold coins for my World gold collection has became a lot more expensive. Makes me wish I started many years ago. It seems due to banks and the economic situation the whole World has gone gold daft, which has had a knock on effect on gold coins.

Fractional farthings haven't went up a big deal, which is good for me.

Are prices moving due to supply and demand or dealers understand that the market has a number of new collectors that do not understand our grading which opens a new window of opportunity?

I don't know how much the prices for other coins have changed as I haven't followed them but like anything else its down to supply and demand. Obviously unless some hoarded coins are found there aren't going to be an abundance of nice grade older coins and the more people wanting to own one means the prices will rise.

I guess the freedom and communication capabilities of the internet have helped, it has brought to the market more coins and collectors from oversees.

What is really driving prices the lack of material or dealers?

The dealers play their part but again its mainly down to supply and demand. I also think there are more investors entering the coin market. Banks have fell out of favour and people are looking for new places to invest in.

Hus

[Peckris 579]

Hi Members

I am interested to understand your opinions on a number if topics concerning the future of our hobby

What effect the internet is having on our coin collecting habits?

Well there is always a positive and negative side to things. One positive is that there is lots of information out there to help newcomers, and also plenty of online dealing (not simply eBay). The latter is one of the negatives : too much rubbish is up on that site, overgraded, mis-described, doing no-one any favours in the long term.

Are prices moving due to supply and demand or dealers understand that the market has a number of new collectors that do not understand our grading which opens a new window of opportunity?

There is no substitute for the face-to-face help you can from a dealer, and from handling coins with no obligation to buy. But there have always been charlatans and crooks around, thankfully a minority, I don't think the internet has changed the balance so very much. Supply & demand will always become the bottom-line market driver, except in times of feverish speculation (& in my time there have only been two of those in the UK market, 1966-1970, and 1979-80.)

What is really driving prices the lack of material or dealers?

That's the same formula my friend : supply & demand. Lack of material is an increasing factor, as the supply of good quality pre-decimal coins is a finite resource getting smaller by the year.

[declanwmagee 122]

Just an observation from the bottom end of the market - down here it's going nuts...

Is it going to calm down after the end of the financial year? Does that have an effect? I'm sick of hearing myself say "I'm not paying that, for that!".

If I'm not careful I'm going to sell too many coins and start to get low on stock, and I can't have that.

I'd rather wait to restock if it is going to calm down, or do I just have to bite the bullet and accept that I have to pay more now than I used to?

[£400 for a Penny ? 0]

I think a major contributory factor to recent and hard to fathom price inflation, is that there appear to be a growing number of folk with spare money in their pocket, who are perhaps more familiar with internet transcations, i.e. buying without seeing, and seem quite happy to shell out significant sums on trust and perhaps without 360 degree vision.

Whether these people learn from their experiences and go on to become seasoned (and more sober) collectors remains to be seen.

They may disappear, they may be replaced by a conveyor belt of new talent, or it all might die down a bit.

There's no doubt that it is all very inflationary though, and maybe not what the established collector would like, but market forces are market forces ?

What do we do, welcome potential new interest ? Deplore the brash invasion ? Belt them with fish ?

Trouble is, the sensible one's come on places like here to further their research, but there's always another one who doesn't.

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

[declanwmagee 122]

I think a major contributory factor to recent and hard to fathom price inflation, is that there appear to be a growing number of folk with spare money in their pocket, who are perhaps more familiar with internet transcations, i.e. buying without seeing, and seem quite happy to shell out significant sums on trust and perhaps without 360 degree vision.

Whether these people learn from their experiences and go on to become seasoned (and more sober) collectors remains to be seen.

They may disappear, they may be replaced by a conveyor belt of new talent, or it all might die down a bit.

There's no doubt that it is all very inflationary though, and maybe not what the established collector would like, but market forces are market forces ?

What do we do, welcome potential new interest ? Deplore the brash invasion ? Belt them with fish ?

Trouble is, the sensible one's come on places like here to further their research, but there's always another one who doesn't.

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

I think it has to be welcomed. The only thing worse than an inflationary market, is a deflationary one. It's not like housing, where bubbles burst and leave people in negative equity, because even if you paid too much for a coin, you've still got the coin that you wanted. You're not in debt. And even if most of the new collectors fade away in time, there'll always be collectors - it's in our blood.

Going back to the original question about new material - that's the key. New collectors are still being made, but the things we collect aren't, so basic supply and demand kicks in. Maybe it's something to do with a loss of confidence in traditional methods of saving and investment? I'd rather have a coin than an endowment policy!

[Peckris 579]

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

I'm not quite so sure? I was a schoolkid in the late 60s when that madness was prevailing, and as a newcomer I took it all as perfectly normal. Luckily I'd collected from change rather than spending money I didn't have or the complete collapse of modern prices from 1971 would have made me as tragically sad as it did various 'investment' dealers whose hands were well and truly burned.

Obviously it is very difficult to make firm & confident predictions (or we'd all be millionaires!) but I'm not sure that the current eBay trends will continue forever upwards : that's what people were saying about the housing market...

[Peter 615]

I'm selling old stuff some making diddly squat and some doing well...I just go with the flow.Thats Ebay

Quality is at the top range I'm sure..in 1970 1960 crowns were going for £4 mine just sold for £3 equally 1972 proof crown sold for just over a fiver...book price £30.The market isn't stable.

Quality is what you want but plenty VF coins can be had for a bargain

It won't stop me selling because I just need the space.

[1949threepence 3,367]

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

I'm not quite so sure? I was a schoolkid in the late 60s when that madness was prevailing, and as a newcomer I took it all as perfectly normal. Luckily I'd collected from change rather than spending money I didn't have or the complete collapse of modern prices from 1971 would have made me as tragically sad as it did various 'investment' dealers whose hands were well and truly burned.

Obviously it is very difficult to make firm & confident predictions (or we'd all be millionaires!) but I'm not sure that the current eBay trends will continue forever upwards : that's what people were saying about the housing market...

It's all about supply and demand. Like housing, if there is a combination of shortage and demand, prices will go up. If the supply increases, then demand will weaken.

With coins, the supply of pre decimal is constant. It will never change, except for more and more quality materiakl being squirrelled away in private collections, never to see the light of day again.

Not really for me to pontificate on the collapse in market & prices from 1971, as I wasn't around then. But I do wonder if it had anything to do with decimalisation. Maybe the mania had been driven by people checking what was in their change, and once that avenue had been withdrawn, the mass interest waned rapidly. Moreover, sometimes trends just suddenly change for no obvious reason at all.

[Peckris 579]

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

I'm not quite so sure? I was a schoolkid in the late 60s when that madness was prevailing, and as a newcomer I took it all as perfectly normal. Luckily I'd collected from change rather than spending money I didn't have or the complete collapse of modern prices from 1971 would have made me as tragically sad as it did various 'investment' dealers whose hands were well and truly burned.

Obviously it is very difficult to make firm & confident predictions (or we'd all be millionaires!) but I'm not sure that the current eBay trends will continue forever upwards : that's what people were saying about the housing market...

It's all about supply and demand. Like housing, if there is a combination of shortage and demand, prices will go up. If the supply increases, then demand will weaken.

With coins, the supply of pre decimal is constant. It will never change, except for more and more quality materiakl being squirrelled away in private collections, never to see the light of day again.

Not really for me to pontificate on the collapse in market & prices from 1971, as I wasn't around then. But I do wonder if it had anything to do with decimalisation. Maybe the mania had been driven by people checking what was in their change, and once that avenue had been withdrawn, the mass interest waned rapidly. Moreover, sometimes trends just suddenly change for no obvious reason at all.

It had everything to do with decimalisation - which was of course, the spur for the frenzy & madness that preceded the collapse.

I agree that trends that can change with no obvious reason, but there must be underlying causes, even if we can't immediately see them? Just as the collapse in the housing market OUGHT to have been dictated by the gods of supply and demand, though it wasn't. The supply of houses has been fairly constant - it was the collapse of the American sub-prime mortgage market, occasioned by banks stopping lending to each other, then the imminent near-collapse of the banks themselves, that did for our housing market. But before it collapsed it had over-heated to a ludicrous extent, driven by fear (first-time buyers desperately trying to get on the property ladder), greed (over-extended 'buy-to-let's, people trying to cash in on equity, etc), the general 'lemming' factor, among other factors. Strangely, supply and demand - i.e. 'normal' market forces - had very little to do with it, IMO.

[declanwmagee 122]

Good observations Mr Peckris. It makes me chuckle when market forces are talked about is if they were the weather - naturally occurring rises and falls, almost tidal.

They are not - they are all man-made phenomena. Controlled by many or controlled by few is another argunent, but controlled they are.

[Peckris 579]

Good observations Mr Peckris. It makes me chuckle when market forces are talked about is if they were the weather - naturally occurring rises and falls, almost tidal.

They are not - they are all man-made phenomena. Controlled by many or controlled by few is another argunent, but controlled they are.

LOL yes. If it was that predictable, we'd all be millionaires!

[1949threepence 3,367]

My opinion is that anything that has happened before, trend wise, can be forgotten. The internet has changed everything.

I'm not quite so sure? I was a schoolkid in the late 60s when that madness was prevailing, and as a newcomer I took it all as perfectly normal. Luckily I'd collected from change rather than spending money I didn't have or the complete collapse of modern prices from 1971 would have made me as tragically sad as it did various 'investment' dealers whose hands were well and truly burned.

Obviously it is very difficult to make firm & confident predictions (or we'd all be millionaires!) but I'm not sure that the current eBay trends will continue forever upwards : that's what people were saying about the housing market...

It's all about supply and demand. Like housing, if there is a combination of shortage and demand, prices will go up. If the supply increases, then demand will weaken.

With coins, the supply of pre decimal is constant. It will never change, except for more and more quality materiakl being squirrelled away in private collections, never to see the light of day again.

Not really for me to pontificate on the collapse in market & prices from 1971, as I wasn't around then. But I do wonder if it had anything to do with decimalisation. Maybe the mania had been driven by people checking what was in their change, and once that avenue had been withdrawn, the mass interest waned rapidly. Moreover, sometimes trends just suddenly change for no obvious reason at all.

It had everything to do with decimalisation - which was of course, the spur for the frenzy & madness that preceded the collapse.

I agree that trends that can change with no obvious reason, but there must be underlying causes, even if we can't immediately see them? Just as the collapse in the housing market OUGHT to have been dictated by the gods of supply and demand, though it wasn't. The supply of houses has been fairly constant - it was the collapse of the American sub-prime mortgage market, occasioned by banks stopping lending to each other, then the imminent near-collapse of the banks themselves, that did for our housing market. But before it collapsed it had over-heated to a ludicrous extent, driven by fear (first-time buyers desperately trying to get on the property ladder), greed (over-extended 'buy-to-let's, people trying to cash in on equity, etc), the general 'lemming' factor, among other factors. Strangely, supply and demand - i.e. 'normal' market forces - had very little to do with it, IMO.

Supply and demand is nearly always the criteria cited by economists to describe market movements in the absence of other factors, such as the ones we have discussed. With house prices, an apparently over inflated market in early 2007, fell away rapidly after a brief period of stagnation, due, we would speculate, to global recession. But the underlying shortage of land and new builds, has made the UK housing market look more than resilient from mid 2009 onwards, as prices have recovered much of their previously lost ground, especially in the South East.

I agree with much of what you say, but ultimately it will always come down to supply and demand, notwithstanding the massively complex nature of the economy and consumer trends. With coins, what held good in 1971, will not be repeated again today. None of us can possibly say what will happen in the future, but I agree with Declan that e bay is directly responsible for a resurgence of long dormant interest.

[£400 for a Penny ? 0]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

[Gary D 76]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

That's good idea, then can we have the next peak in 2019 around april - may time.

[declanwmagee 122]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

That's good idea, then can we have the next peak in 2019 around april - may time.

Noooo! Not yet, I'm not quite ready!

[Peckris 579]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

That's good idea, then can we have the next peak in 2019 around april - may time.

Noooo! Not yet, I'm not quite ready!

Hahaha - did you mistake that 9 in the date, for a 0 Declan?

I still maintain that mere 'supply and demand' is an unsustainable mantra. It would be true of petrol, wheat, potatoes, and things like that, but too many other things - housing included - are at the whims of fashion every bit as much. If it were not so, then perpetually restricted supply of, for example, Wreath Crowns would have ensured peak catalogue values over the decades. But even those have been subject to the ins and outs of fashion. S&D on their own are misleading.

[declanwmagee 122]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

That's good idea, then can we have the next peak in 2019 around april - may time.

Noooo! Not yet, I'm not quite ready!

Hahaha - did you mistake that 9 in the date, for a 0 Declan?

I still maintain that mere 'supply and demand' is an unsustainable mantra. It would be true of petrol, wheat, potatoes, and things like that, but too many other things - housing included - are at the whims of fashion every bit as much. If it were not so, then perpetually restricted supply of, for example, Wreath Crowns would have ensured peak catalogue values over the decades. But even those have been subject to the ins and outs of fashion. S&D on their own are misleading.

no I mean I'm not quite ready for a price crash yet...!

[Peckris 579]

Stagnant is a good word.

Judging by the dealers lists that I monitor, coins do not seem to be flying off the shelves. Perhaps Mat's inability to shift his C1 Crown is further evidence of this ?

You would like to think that there will be a price correction sometime, some prices are just plain barmy.

What can we do to precipitate a price crash ? Can we use forum power to start one off

That's good idea, then can we have the next peak in 2019 around april - may time.

Noooo! Not yet, I'm not quite ready!

Hahaha - did you mistake that 9 in the date, for a 0 Declan?

I still maintain that mere 'supply and demand' is an unsustainable mantra. It would be true of petrol, wheat, potatoes, and things like that, but too many other things - housing included - are at the whims of fashion every bit as much. If it were not so, then perpetually restricted supply of, for example, Wreath Crowns would have ensured peak catalogue values over the decades. But even those have been subject to the ins and outs of fashion. S&D on their own are misleading.

no I mean I'm not quite ready for a price crash yet...!

Ah, I get it - you need to sell before you buy!

[declanwmagee 122]

Ah, I get it - you need to sell before you buy!

yes indeed - in fact the only time I can buy is when I sell, so it's a bit like riding a wave. I usually manage to spend it withing an hour or two of it coming in - the quicker the better I say.