1861 Variable dies

[1949threepence 3,367]

I don't think the price of copper has any bearing on the current craze for high grade buns. If it did, even relatively low-grade 20th Century pennies would be doing a roaring trade, and they aren't.

I agree, Peck. The actual price of copper might have a knock on effect with the bulk sale of low grade coins en masse, from any era. It would not explain the current craze for buns. However, apart from the very rare examples, like the 1869, 1875H, and to a lesser extent 1864 crosslet 4 and 1871, collectors are pushing strongly for the very high grades, which have a premium on them orders of magnitude greater than their pro rata value to lower grade examples would indicate.

Maybe that's due to their increasing scarcity as more and more find their way into private collections and therefore permanently or semi permanently withdrawn from trade. You could argue that has always been the case, so maybe there is some other factor at work which we can only speculate on ~ or a combination of 2 factors only one of which we can readily indentify.

That's a good point. I wonder if the same fever has extended to the commoner dates in high grade, i.e. 1887 - 1893 - anyone noticed?

Not to the same extent, no. I found those dates much easier to obtain in high grade at a not too high a price. It seems to be from 1881 back, where the really steep prices begin. Interestingly, even the 1877, an UNC (40% lustre) example of which I bought last year for £75, has shot up, and buy it now instances of the same coin at the same grade, are being offered for over £200. That said, the 1882H, which I got UNC with about 80% lustre for £73 last year, was being offered for £325 in about the same grade recently. That coin has now gone, so I'm not sure what it went for in the end.

[Beebman 2]

I don't think the price of copper has any bearing on the current craze for high grade buns. If it did, even relatively low-grade 20th Century pennies would be doing a roaring trade, and they aren't.

I agree, Peck. The actual price of copper might have a knock on effect with the bulk sale of low grade coins en masse, from any era. It would not explain the current craze for buns. However, apart from the very rare examples, like the 1869, 1875H, and to a lesser extent 1864 crosslet 4 and 1871, collectors are pushing strongly for the very high grades, which have a premium on them orders of magnitude greater than their pro rata value to lower grade examples would indicate.

Maybe that's due to their increasing scarcity as more and more find their way into private collections and therefore permanently or semi permanently withdrawn from trade. You could argue that has always been the case, so maybe there is some other factor at work which we can only speculate on ~ or a combination of 2 factors only one of which we can readily indentify.

That's a good point. I wonder if the same fever has extended to the commoner dates in high grade, i.e. 1887 - 1893 - anyone noticed?

About 15 months ago I managed to win on eBay a 1893 penny with 90% lustre for £77. Recently one with about 20% lustre and some wear on high areas went for £141. Currently there's one with reasonably good lustre but a dark blotch on the obverse being offered for £165 and another similar one but this time with some verdigris spots on the reverse being offered for £225.

[argentumandcoins 70]

I don't think the price of copper has any bearing on the current craze for high grade buns. If it did, even relatively low-grade 20th Century pennies would be doing a roaring trade, and they aren't.

I agree, Peck. The actual price of copper might have a knock on effect with the bulk sale of low grade coins en masse, from any era. It would not explain the current craze for buns. However, apart from the very rare examples, like the 1869, 1875H, and to a lesser extent 1864 crosslet 4 and 1871, collectors are pushing strongly for the very high grades, which have a premium on them orders of magnitude greater than their pro rata value to lower grade examples would indicate.

Maybe that's due to their increasing scarcity as more and more find their way into private collections and therefore permanently or semi permanently withdrawn from trade. You could argue that has always been the case, so maybe there is some other factor at work which we can only speculate on ~ or a combination of 2 factors only one of which we can readily indentify.

That's a good point. I wonder if the same fever has extended to the commoner dates in high grade, i.e. 1887 - 1893 - anyone noticed?

Not to the same extent, no. I found those dates much easier to obtain in high grade at a not too high a price. It seems to be from 1881 back, where the really steep prices begin. Interestingly, even the 1877, an UNC (40% lustre) example of which I bought last year for £75, has shot up, and buy it now instances of the same coin at the same grade, are being offered for over £200. That said, the 1882H, which I got UNC with about 80% lustre for £73 last year, was being offered for £325 in about the same grade recently. That coin has now gone, so I'm not sure what it went for in the end.

It went for £325, I was the seller.

You cannot confuse ebay auction prices with BIN prices. The auctions on there are so unpredictable that sellers sometimes end up giving stuff away. You also should not confuse ebay prices with market value. Some people only buy from coin dealers and are willing to pay a fair price, whilst others scour ebay in the hopes of building a collection on bargains.

One thing you have to bear in mind with ebay is a sort of "peer pressure" or "blind leading the blind" when it comes to BIN prices.

An example would be me listing the same 1882H penny today for £325. Mrs Miggins from the Pie Shop in old London Town finds one that looks the same in her dearly departed fathers sock drawer. She sells odds and ends on ebay and decides the coin is going the same way. She hasn't heard of Spink, Coin News, Coin dealers et al and doesn't know what it's worth. Rather than give it away she does the sensible thing and checks for like coins on ebay. She finds mine and decides hers is the same/better/worse condition and prices hers from mine. She doesn't know mine cost me £380 in auction with a halfpenny, nor does she know that mine is tip top Tommy, but I have now become the price setter for her and those that follow with the same coin.

Look at something relatively common like 1927 proof sets. The price on ebay has gone nuts, the price in auction has gone nuts. Is it ebay sellers trying to buy in auction pushing the prices up, which in turn drives up the ebay/dealer selling price due to their having to pay more?

Chicken and egg scenario.

[azda 979]

I wonder (in todays crazy market) this lil bad boy would sell for (its not for sale) but it's a stunning coin. Its the F16 i bought a few weeks back, i was a little hesitant to pay the sellers asking price but eventually did, this F16 though has the flying boat which is normally associated with the F10

[azda 979]

Here's a closeup of the ship

[1949threepence 3,367]

I don't think the price of copper has any bearing on the current craze for high grade buns. If it did, even relatively low-grade 20th Century pennies would be doing a roaring trade, and they aren't.

I agree, Peck. The actual price of copper might have a knock on effect with the bulk sale of low grade coins en masse, from any era. It would not explain the current craze for buns. However, apart from the very rare examples, like the 1869, 1875H, and to a lesser extent 1864 crosslet 4 and 1871, collectors are pushing strongly for the very high grades, which have a premium on them orders of magnitude greater than their pro rata value to lower grade examples would indicate.

Maybe that's due to their increasing scarcity as more and more find their way into private collections and therefore permanently or semi permanently withdrawn from trade. You could argue that has always been the case, so maybe there is some other factor at work which we can only speculate on ~ or a combination of 2 factors only one of which we can readily indentify.

That's a good point. I wonder if the same fever has extended to the commoner dates in high grade, i.e. 1887 - 1893 - anyone noticed?

Not to the same extent, no. I found those dates much easier to obtain in high grade at a not too high a price. It seems to be from 1881 back, where the really steep prices begin. Interestingly, even the 1877, an UNC (40% lustre) example of which I bought last year for £75, has shot up, and buy it now instances of the same coin at the same grade, are being offered for over £200. That said, the 1882H, which I got UNC with about 80% lustre for £73 last year, was being offered for £325 in about the same grade recently. That coin has now gone, so I'm not sure what it went for in the end.

It went for £325, I was the seller.

You cannot confuse ebay auction prices with BIN prices. The auctions on there are so unpredictable that sellers sometimes end up giving stuff away. You also should not confuse ebay prices with market value. Some people only buy from coin dealers and are willing to pay a fair price, whilst others scour ebay in the hopes of building a collection on bargains.

One thing you have to bear in mind with ebay is a sort of "peer pressure" or "blind leading the blind" when it comes to BIN prices.

An example would be me listing the same 1882H penny today for £325. Mrs Miggins from the Pie Shop in old London Town finds one that looks the same in her dearly departed fathers sock drawer. She sells odds and ends on ebay and decides the coin is going the same way. She hasn't heard of Spink, Coin News, Coin dealers et al and doesn't know what it's worth. Rather than give it away she does the sensible thing and checks for like coins on ebay. She finds mine and decides hers is the same/better/worse condition and prices hers from mine. She doesn't know mine cost me £380 in auction with a halfpenny, nor does she know that mine is tip top Tommy, but I have now become the price setter for her and those that follow with the same coin.

Look at something relatively common like 1927 proof sets. The price on ebay has gone nuts, the price in auction has gone nuts. Is it ebay sellers trying to buy in auction pushing the prices up, which in turn drives up the ebay/dealer selling price due to their having to pay more?

Chicken and egg scenario.

All that you say above, John, is spot on for the most part. However, it is still possible to net the odd real bargain, either as a BIN or at auction. Recently, I got a superb aUNC 1875 narrow date penny, really sharp strike, for just £53, probably because I took a chance on what was a really poor pic, which inhibited bids. In hand the coin is a beauty. I've also grabbed a number of bargains via BIN, probably through sellers who didn't appreciate the true value of the coin they were offering, combined with the fact that I got in before anyone else.

Moreover, some non e bay dealers are still offering coins at bargain basement prices, and are either very ethical, or have failed to uprate the price of a coin which has been on sale maybe longer than it should, and still carries a 2009 price tag possibly. I got an UNC 1892 with about 75% lustre for just £35 last February (2010), from a private dealer. Even accunting for the rise since then, I still reckon that was a real bargain.

Obviously, from all that is being said, many people are being blown out of the water at auctions, as silly money is exchanging hands. Will the bubble burst eventually ? If so, when ? Like the housing boom of last decade, nobody knows.

[1949threepence 3,367]

I wonder (in todays crazy market) this lil bad boy would sell for (its not for sale) but it's a stunning coin. Its the F16 i bought a few weeks back, i was a little hesitant to pay the sellers asking price but eventually did, this F16 though has the flying boat which is normally associated with the F10

Absolutely stunning. You really are getting your hands on some superb stock, Dave.

[azda 979]

That one is for the collection Mike

[£400 for a Penny ? 0]

Even accunting for the rise since then, I still reckon that was a real bargain.

I don't like accountants either, but that seems a bit harsh......

[Red Riley 2]

I don't like accountants either, but that seems a bit harsh......

Bit of a Naughtie moment...

[1949threepence 3,367]

That one is for the collection Mike

Absolutely. Coins like that don't come along every day

[1949threepence 3,367]

Even accunting for the rise since then, I still reckon that was a real bargain.

I don't like accountants either, but that seems a bit harsh......

Bit of a Naughtie moment...

Ah, now feeling a degree of embarrassment for that truly horrendous typo

[Peckris 579]

Even accunting for the rise since then, I still reckon that was a real bargain.

I don't like accountants either, but that seems a bit harsh......

Bit of a Naughtie moment...

Ah, now feeling a degree of embarrassment for that truly horrendous typo