Coin Auctions

[Boomstick 0]

So who are all these flush buyers? You chaps are the experts and aren't winning the lots for what you think (in your very learned opinions) they are worth. Are these new investors blindly taking a punt, or being guided by those in the industry??

[argentumandcoins 70]

So who are all these flush buyers? You chaps are the experts and aren't winning the lots for what you think (in your very learned opinions) they are worth. Are these new investors blindly taking a punt, or being guided by those in the industry??

Well... I stand by my assertion that there is certainly a new breed of ebay "dealer"

Most of them know bugger all about coins, rarities, values or anything else and just see 300 coins being worth £5 each = £1500 on a £120-£140 estimate.

They buy them and try and punt them on to some unsuspecting newbie collector. They are driving the market at the bottom end. People like me that used to do very well on bulk lots at all of the major sales are now winning bugger all because we know that 300 coins with that estimate are probably worth £600 tops (minus fees, tax, accountancy fees, advertising etc etc because we are registered with HM govt as taxpayers). We now have to buy small named lots with coins pictured (if bidding blind) or single high value items, so we are pushing the high end coin prices up. Add into the mix the new breed of cash rich investor and the old school collectors (who both have to pay more because of people like me) and you have your answer. The other big problem for knowledgeable buyers is the gold and silver price hike.

An 1887 half sov was worth about £110/£120 before the surge in gold, it's now worth £110/£120 resale as are all of the commoner dates. Bulk silver lots are now worth more as scrap than they are as coins so we are also facing competition from traditional antique dealers who move in like sharks once they smell quick profits (although the margins are small the turnaround is immediate).

All in all it's a tough world at the moment for those of us who do this for a living. I hope Peck is correct and the bubble deflates slightly or we'll all be finding it easier to get a mortgage than we will to buy decent coins!

[Accumulator 52]

So who are all these flush buyers? You chaps are the experts and aren't winning the lots for what you think (in your very learned opinions) they are worth. Are these new investors blindly taking a punt, or being guided by those in the industry??

Well... I stand by my assertion that there is certainly a new breed of ebay "dealer"

Most of them know bugger all about coins, rarities, values or anything else and just see 300 coins being worth £5 each = £1500 on a £120-£140 estimate.

They buy them and try and punt them on to some unsuspecting newbie collector. They are driving the market at the bottom end. People like me that used to do very well on bulk lots at all of the major sales are now winning bugger all because we know that 300 coins with that estimate are probably worth £600 tops (minus fees, tax, accountancy fees, advertising etc etc because we are registered with HM govt as taxpayers). We now have to buy small named lots with coins pictured (if bidding blind) or single high value items, so we are pushing the high end coin prices up. Add into the mix the new breed of cash rich investor and the old school collectors (who both have to pay more because of people like me) and you have your answer. The other big problem for knowledgeable buyers is the gold and silver price hike.

An 1887 half sov was worth about £110/£120 before the surge in gold, it's now worth £110/£120 resale as are all of the commoner dates. Bulk silver lots are now worth more as scrap than they are as coins so we are also facing competition from traditional antique dealers who move in like sharks once they smell quick profits (although the margins are small the turnaround is immediate).

All in all it's a tough world at the moment for those of us who do this for a living. I hope Peck is correct and the bubble deflates slightly or we'll all be finding it easier to get a mortgage than we will to buy decent coins!

I'm really not sure what the drivers are, but the surge in market prices is clear. It's interesting to make a comparison with another very similar commodity, stamps. As a young lad I collected both but actually favoured stamps over coins for some reason. I well remember, at age 10, selling my train set for £10 to buy a penny black! Today I still have both the stamps and coins I collected and guess what, the stamps are virtually worthless by comparison to the coins. Take a look at stamps on eBay which don't even come close to their prices of 30 years ago and many of which are now almost unsaleable.

So why has the staple of all teenage collectors, the postage stamp, fallen by the wayside while coins have grown in popularity? When times are hard, investments tend to regress towards what people regard as their intrinsic vale. This is particularly apparent in the gold coin market where intrinsic=bullion and any investor can instantly asses value. By comparison, many other forms of investment are a lot less attractive. When it comes down to it, stamps are just paper rectangles!

Now we come to the guesswork. What if the attractiveness of gold coins as an investment vehicle, particularly through eBay, has created a whole new breed of collector? What if these buyers have seen other, perhaps more interesting, coins listed alongside their beloved sovereigns and have decided to take a punt? What if one purchase has become two, then three, then the beginnings of a collection? Remember, these will generally be well-heeled investors as sovereigns aren't cheap.

As I say, it's guesswork but something is happening and people are spending lots of money. and there has to be a reason for it!

[DaveG38 405]

So who are all these flush buyers? You chaps are the experts and aren't winning the lots for what you think (in your very learned opinions) they are worth. Are these new investors blindly taking a punt, or being guided by those in the industry??

Well... I stand by my assertion that there is certainly a new breed of ebay "dealer"

Most of them know bugger all about coins, rarities, values or anything else and just see 300 coins being worth £5 each = £1500 on a £120-£140 estimate.

They buy them and try and punt them on to some unsuspecting newbie collector. They are driving the market at the bottom end. People like me that used to do very well on bulk lots at all of the major sales are now winning bugger all because we know that 300 coins with that estimate are probably worth £600 tops (minus fees, tax, accountancy fees, advertising etc etc because we are registered with HM govt as taxpayers). We now have to buy small named lots with coins pictured (if bidding blind) or single high value items, so we are pushing the high end coin prices up. Add into the mix the new breed of cash rich investor and the old school collectors (who both have to pay more because of people like me) and you have your answer. The other big problem for knowledgeable buyers is the gold and silver price hike.

An 1887 half sov was worth about £110/£120 before the surge in gold, it's now worth £110/£120 resale as are all of the commoner dates. Bulk silver lots are now worth more as scrap than they are as coins so we are also facing competition from traditional antique dealers who move in like sharks once they smell quick profits (although the margins are small the turnaround is immediate).

All in all it's a tough world at the moment for those of us who do this for a living. I hope Peck is correct and the bubble deflates slightly or we'll all be finding it easier to get a mortgage than we will to buy decent coins!

I'm really not sure what the drivers are, but the surge in market prices is clear. It's interesting to make a comparison with another very similar commodity, stamps. As a young lad I collected both but actually favoured stamps over coins for some reason. I well remember, at age 10, selling my train set for £10 to buy a penny black! Today I still have both the stamps and coins I collected and guess what, the stamps are virtually worthless by comparison to the coins. Take a look at stamps on eBay which don't even come close to their prices of 30 years ago and many of which are now almost unsaleable.

So why has the staple of all teenage collectors, the postage stamp, fallen by the wayside while coins have grown in popularity? When times are hard, investments tend to regress towards what people regard as their intrinsic vale. This is particularly apparent in the gold coin market where intrinsic=bullion and any investor can instantly asses value. By comparison, many other forms of investment are a lot less attractive. When it comes down to it, stamps are just paper rectangles!

Now we come to the guesswork. What if the attractiveness of gold coins as an investment vehicle, particularly through eBay, has created a whole new breed of collector? What if these buyers have seen other, perhaps more interesting, coins listed alongside their beloved sovereigns and have decided to take a punt? What if one purchase has become two, then three, then the beginnings of a collection? Remember, these will generally be well-heeled investors as sovereigns aren't cheap.

As I say, it's guesswork but something is happening and people are spending lots of money. and there has to be a reason for it!

As I think I have posted before on here, part of the meteoric rise in gold in recent years is the realisation by seasoned investors that the US dollar is still in big trouble. The US deficit is truly enormous, growth in the US economy is relatively slow and cannot come from the retail sector due to high unemployment. You can't easily raise taxes in this situation and this means the only way in which the bills can be paid is for the governement to effectively devalue the dollar by printing money and allowing inflation to take off thus eroding value. The net result for the canny investor has been to divest himself of dollars and dash for gold.

Add to this the incredibly low bank interest rates and even ordinary investors are looking for alternatives for their cash. Property looks a poor bet as in the UK, in particular, it is unlikely that prices will take off as they have over the past 15 years or so, so that avenue is closed off too. So where do they go? Gold and 'rare/investment' coins and in my view, these are the key drivers for the present hike. My guess is that it will only stop when the first signs of the economy upturning come in and investors start to turn to more conventional investments. If a lot of them start to 'dump' their coins on the market we could see prices start to tumble i.e. a good time to buy if you want particular coins at a better price, just wait a while for coins to level down.

The other factor as identified by others is the worldwide reach of eBay and the, in my view, fact that pre-decimal UK coins are very attractive to collectors. All in all, a perfect storm for driving prices up, but I am under no illusions that this will continue. All bubbles burst - it's just a matter of when.

[Peckris 579]

As for estimates, they are supposed to be the price at which the auction house expects a lot to sell at, not "come and buy me" estimate.

I disagree. I attended my first W&W auction in 1997 when prices were VERY conservative (coins were only just beginning to move out of their long stagnation). Yet even then, estimates were something you took with a large pinch of salt, but there was always the "What if...?" thought at the back of your mind, a kind of hope that took you to the sale "just in case". So I do believe estimates are pitched low deliberately to encourage bidding.

[argentumandcoins 70]

As for estimates, they are supposed to be the price at which the auction house expects a lot to sell at, not "come and buy me" estimate.

I disagree. I attended my first W&W auction in 1997 when prices were VERY conservative (coins were only just beginning to move out of their long stagnation). Yet even then, estimates were something you took with a large pinch of salt, but there was always the "What if...?" thought at the back of your mind, a kind of hope that took you to the sale "just in case". So I do believe estimates are pitched low deliberately to encourage bidding.

Peck I actually work as a consultant for one auction house already on coin cataloguing and I'm telling you that an estimate is supposed to be a realistically achievable price on a lot. That is the accepted norm in auctioneering. If W and W apply "come and buy me's" they are the exception not the norm.

[Peckris 579]

As for estimates, they are supposed to be the price at which the auction house expects a lot to sell at, not "come and buy me" estimate.

I disagree. I attended my first W&W auction in 1997 when prices were VERY conservative (coins were only just beginning to move out of their long stagnation). Yet even then, estimates were something you took with a large pinch of salt, but there was always the "What if...?" thought at the back of your mind, a kind of hope that took you to the sale "just in case". So I do believe estimates are pitched low deliberately to encourage bidding.

Peck I actually work as a consultant for one auction house already on coin cataloguing and I'm telling you that an estimate is supposed to be a realistically achievable price on a lot. That is the accepted norm in auctioneering. If W and W apply "come and buy me's" they are the exception not the norm.

We're probably arguing about semantics. When I say "low", I mean the very bottom end of what you're calling "realistically achievable" (i.e. if it's a rainy day, hardly anyone turns up, and there's no collectors in the room). There's no way they will ever be "not conservative".

[argentumandcoins 70]

As for estimates, they are supposed to be the price at which the auction house expects a lot to sell at, not "come and buy me" estimate.

I disagree. I attended my first W&W auction in 1997 when prices were VERY conservative (coins were only just beginning to move out of their long stagnation). Yet even then, estimates were something you took with a large pinch of salt, but there was always the "What if...?" thought at the back of your mind, a kind of hope that took you to the sale "just in case". So I do believe estimates are pitched low deliberately to encourage bidding.

Peck I actually work as a consultant for one auction house already on coin cataloguing and I'm telling you that an estimate is supposed to be a realistically achievable price on a lot. That is the accepted norm in auctioneering. If W and W apply "come and buy me's" they are the exception not the norm.

We're probably arguing about semantics. When I say "low", I mean the very bottom end of what you're calling "realistically achievable" (i.e. if it's a rainy day, hardly anyone turns up, and there's no collectors in the room). There's no way they will ever be "not conservative".

I have won a few, not many, but a few lots in other sales at below bottom estimates. Warwick has not been one of those sales. I don't disagree with you that they deliberately pitch low as a shrewd selling tactic because that may well be the case, all I said was that estimates are supposed to be realistic.

I have not won a single lot in 27 bids and some lots I was 3 times their estimate. Every other saleroom in the country would yield at least a 30% return on bids like that, so either the cataloguer is bloody useless (room bidders spot huge money in the lots), they don't give a toss about accurate cataloguing (room bidders win again), their sales attract buyers with more money than knowledge or they take bids off the wall (not unlawful but definitely unethical).

[Red Riley 2]

Lot 20 Derek? You sod I had £320 on that so I was outbid by.....YOU

The good thing about being up here is that there is very little competition in the Northern sales and what strong bidders there are quite often have a crack pre sale, naughty but nice

As for estimates, they are supposed to be the price at which the auction house expects a lot to sell at, not "come and buy me" estimate.

There is a possibility that there will be a major Northern house teaming up with me this year to run specialist coin auctions. The cataloguing and grading will be accurate and conservative (ancient and hammered will be a lucky bag as I am weak on those at the moment) and the auction will be a live on-line job. If it comes off it should be a good show (early days yet but fingers crossed). We get a lot of sleepers up here, as you saw from the 2 purchases I had in auction last month, so there should be enough to keep people interested. If the sales do happen I can say with certainty that the estimates will be what I would expect to pay as a dealer/collector so if you doubled the top estimate bidding blind you would be extremely unlikely not to win the lot.

I hope your northern coin auction does get off the ground, at present the whole thing seems very South East/Midlands centred and although my chances of attending a sale in Newcastle or Carlisle are slim, it will at least give northern dealers/collectors a chance to get a slice of the action, which I clearly didn't do over lot 20!

[HistoryTreasures 0]

Yes, I agree. I think the reason for it is simply due to the auction calendar being a bit quiet at the moment and hence there is a spate of material being offered. People have got to have their coins, and so the result is predictable...

[Red Riley 2]

Yes, I agree. I think the reason for it is simply due to the auction calendar being a bit quiet at the moment and hence there is a spate of material being offered. People have got to have their coins, and so the result is predictable...

Another thing that I noticed at W & W last week was what I perceived as a severe shortage of individual lots. Did anybody else pick this up? I have only been to one W & W auction before so this may be normal, but in my view there just didn't seem to be a huge amount there.

[Colin G. 147]

Yes, I agree. I think the reason for it is simply due to the auction calendar being a bit quiet at the moment and hence there is a spate of material being offered. People have got to have their coins, and so the result is predictable...

Another thing that I noticed at W & W last week was what I perceived as a severe shortage of individual lots. Did anybody else pick this up? I have only been to one W & W auction before so this may be normal, but in my view there just didn't seem to be a huge amount there.

They do tend to have a high percentage of bulk lots, which great for the sifters out there like me

[Peckris 579]

or they take bids off the wall (not unlawful but definitely unethical).

Really? You surprise me! I thought that was very definitely illegal, as much so as 'ringing'?

[argentumandcoins 70]

or they take bids off the wall (not unlawful but definitely unethical).

Really? You surprise me! I thought that was very definitely illegal, as much so as 'ringing'?

The auctioneer is merely trying to obtain what he believes to be a fair price for the vendor (nothing at all to do with their huge commision) and he is not forcing the other party to bid. It isn't really any different to the auctioneer opening the bidding at £x and stating he won't take less. Property auctions are notorious for it.

[Fubar 80]

Bouncing bids off the wall or "bidding up" is actually legal but limited to two or three.

Usually done when there's a reserve to try and bring the price back up if the auctioneer has to go too low to get bidding started.

Not allowed past the reserve or lower estimated value I believe.

[Peckris 579]

Bouncing bids off the wall or "bidding up" is actually legal but limited to two or three.

Usually done when there's a reserve to try and bring the price back up if the auctioneer has to go too low to get bidding started.

Not allowed past the reserve or lower estimated value I believe.

That makes more sense. I can sympathise with that even I don't outright approve.

[Bernie 203]

Bouncing bids off the wall or "bidding up" is actually legal but limited to two or three.

Usually done when there's a reserve to try and bring the price back up if the auctioneer has to go too low to get bidding started.

Not allowed past the reserve or lower estimated value I believe.

That makes more sense. I can sympathise with that even I don't outright approve.

You will know when bids are bounced off the wall when....

You think that you have been outbid, but when paying for your lots are told that you have won five lots not the three that you thought that you won!!

In these cases the Wall was the winning bidder but you get the lot at your underbid!!

[Rob 3,152]

You will know when bids are bounced off the wall when....

You think that you have been outbid, but when paying for your lots are told that you have won five lots not the three that you thought that you won!!

In these cases the Wall was the winning bidder but you get the lot at your underbid!!

Happy days when it happens on the odd occasion.

[Peckris 579]

Bouncing bids off the wall or "bidding up" is actually legal but limited to two or three.

Usually done when there's a reserve to try and bring the price back up if the auctioneer has to go too low to get bidding started.

Not allowed past the reserve or lower estimated value I believe.

That makes more sense. I can sympathise with that even I don't outright approve.

You will know when bids are bounced off the wall when....

You think that you have been outbid, but when paying for your lots are told that you have won five lots not the three that you thought that you won!!

In these cases the Wall was the winning bidder but you get the lot at your underbid!!

That has NEVER happened to me!

[Rob 3,152]

That has NEVER happened to me!

It's only happened to me a couple of times, but when it does it's a very good feeling - I can feel an anecdote coming on.

The coin below was lot 253 in St.James's 3 where Mark Teller bought it for ~£4K including premium. I wanted it, but not at that price because nobody pays that much for a York shilling under normal circumstances and so was outbid at the sale. 2 or 3 years later it resurfaced in a Goldberg sale. In the interim the pound had depreciated against the dollar, so for the eventual buyer in the St. James's sale to recoup their outlay in dollars it would have been necessary to go to about $8K. This was even sillier than the £4K of two years previous, so I put in a bid within the estimate of $4000-4500 which was effectively at the same level as I was prepared to go to in St. James's and crossed my fingers. I followed the sale on line and got a bit depressed when I found I had been outbid, but only by one increment. I assumed it had a reserve, but had no idea at what level it was set because obviously nobody else had bid. I waited for my other winnings to be invoiced but imagine the euphoria when I discovered that I was being invoiced for something I wanted but thought had escaped. Happy days indeed as it has wall to wall original dusty lustre and the whole coin glistens in the light. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does you get a hell of a buzz.

Obverse

[Rob 3,152]

Reverse

[Red Riley 2]

It's only happened to me a couple of times, but when it does it's a very good feeling - I can feel an anecdote coming on.

The coin below was lot 253 in St.James's 3 where Mark Teller bought it for ~£4K including premium. I wanted it, but not at that price because nobody pays that much for a York shilling under normal circumstances and so was outbid at the sale. 2 or 3 years later it resurfaced in a Goldberg sale. In the interim the pound had depreciated against the dollar, so for the eventual buyer in the St. James's sale to recoup their outlay in dollars it would have been necessary to go to about $8K. This was even sillier than the £4K of two years previous, so I put in a bid within the estimate of $4000-4500 which was effectively at the same level as I was prepared to go to in St. James's and crossed my fingers. I followed the sale on line and got a bit depressed when I found I had been outbid, but only by one increment. I assumed it had a reserve, but had no idea at what level it was set because obviously nobody else had bid. I waited for my other winnings to be invoiced but imagine the euphoria when I discovered that I was being invoiced for something I wanted but thought had escaped. Happy days indeed as it has wall to wall original dusty lustre and the whole coin glistens in the light. It doesn't happen very often, but when it does you get a hell of a buzz.

Surely that can be a mixed blessing. Thinking that you had not won the coin, you go on and bid for another lot or several and spend your last penny on them. Then you get the bill for the coin you originally wanted but thought you hadn't won...

[Rob 3,152]

Surely that can be a mixed blessing. Thinking that you had not won the coin, you go on and bid for another lot or several and spend your last penny on them. Then you get the bill for the coin you originally wanted but thought you hadn't won...

It only happens on book bids. If you bid in the room the auctioneer is in control and so either knocks it down to you there and then or you pass. If you bid live on line the same applies.

[Gary D 76]

Surely that can be a mixed blessing. Thinking that you had not won the coin, you go on and bid for another lot or several and spend your last penny on them. Then you get the bill for the coin you originally wanted but thought you hadn't won...

It only happens on book bids. If you bid in the room the auctioneer is in control and so either knocks it down to you there and then or you pass. If you bid live on line the same applies.

Something similar happened to me when I bought my 1922 penny. The 1st bid was for £1000 and as I was the only bidder I was asked if I would go to £1100 which I guess was the reverse. So ended up with a coin valued at about £1600 at the time for £1229

Edited March 5, 2011 by Gary D