British Coin Forecast for 2012

[DaveG38 405]

I don't think that the coin market is much different from any other in real terms. back in the 1980s, an old nice condition V8 classic Aston Martin could be had for around £15K. Then suddenly during the housing boom and collapse the prices rocketed away, until wrecks could be had for £20K and a good example fetched £80K. The increase merely represented the entry to the market of investors looking for somewhere for their money, and as with coins, the better the example the higher the price. Those with sense knew it wouldn't last and sure enough by the turn of the century, prices were back to more manageable and sensible levels i.e. £15K again.

Now, its happening all over again. A nice soft top in superb condition could have been had for £17K a few years back. Now its £60K. Once the latest financial crisis is over and investors return to the stock market for thei profits, the prices of V8s will again decline (and I might be able to afford one!). This won't happen any time soon, but will sometime in the next 5 to 10 years in my view. It will take that long to stabilise the UK economy and to turn round the current financial mess.

As far as I can see this pretty much mirrors the situation with coins. At the moment, investors are buying into the hobby. Many may stay, but many won't. They'll take a profit and move on. Some will sell on the downturn in prices and make less than they expect. Others will hold on and lose considerably more. So, I expect prices to rise for a few years yet, but once the world's finances are sorted out then prices will start to decline. The only factor in here that is difficult to figure out is what impact the global reach of the internet will have. It may be that this will stem the loss of investors with a wider range of genuine collectors and this may help to bouy the market. Time will tell.

[Peckris 579]

Well eventually the normal collector will not be able to afford the big prices for the UNCs coins and so i rhink those VF.+ and EFs will eventually become more popular when collectors See that some of those UNCs are just a little out of their reach or what they are willing to pay for a coin.

That was not my experience when small time dealing. The high grades were easy to sell, as they were either modern and common and therefore affordable, or they were snapped up by collectors wanting the best grades possible. On the other hand the Fine grades were also fairly easy as they went to buyers on a budget, or completing date runs etc. The ones I was often left with were VFs, too rich for the date-runners and too low for the quality buyers. Ok, I admit that's a generalisation but it's something I noticed.

I believe the increase in Coin prices has a lot to do with the scrap price. The same happened in 1980 and was followed by a decline in most cost prices which lasted for some years. My thoughts are like this,on Silver Coins..You have say an worn 1887 Crown worth £3.00 in scrap and it sells for £5.00, then suddenly its scrap value rises to £15.00 and they start to sell for £20.00. This makes an EF one at £20.00 (1980 prices) seem really cheap, so it rises to £50.00 and that in turn makes all other crowns even back to Charles II look very cheap, so a few sales later they have

doubled or more in price.

As you say, the 1980 rise and fall happened very quick : in December 1979 BU Geo VI silver florins were £2. A few months later they were £12 (not a great deal higher than their then scrap value), but by 1981 had dropped back to £2 again. The present situation is more complex as it is linked to the global recession and the fluctuation in metals and commodity prices, rather than one family's attempt to corner the market in one particular metal. FWIW I think the "long view" is always best. Remember how high gold was in the 70s and 80s? and how low it went in the 90s? and how high it has gone again? It's unwise to use commodity thinking to apply to coins, however erratic the coin market can behave at times.

There is a lot of logic in numismatists post and obviously fuel for the intrinsic coins.There is also a lot more interest in coins due to leisure time and well off silver surfers with their 80% final salary pensions surfing from their paid for 1m homes.I'm a "grey" surfer and can see this in the future.

.....

Good coins are still cheap,can be inspected in detail over the internet and the buyer can now get TPG.(which is inflating the prices of raw coins)

Yes, the older collector with disposable income returning to a schoolboy hobby has been well documented, and is clearly a factor in all this too. I guess the only thing we can safely say is that with coins, there are a number of different factors prevailing simultaneously, and if one was able to predict all of them and 'see the numismatic future', one would become very wealthy!

[Generic Lad 25]

I agree about the US market influencing the UK coin market. The US coin market is increasingly turning to grading and condition rarities rather than key dates and attractive coins. For example, there are people who buy mint sets/proof sets in bulk in hopes that they will come back with a high grade to sell on eBay, despite the fact that MS65/66 specimens are easily found for a fraction of the price. No one cares anymore about the grade of the coin so long as it is the "finest known" example of its kind certified by NGC/PCGS. Not even that, there are even services that grade grading services such as CAC. Due to the rise in precious metal prices, coins that normally wouldn't be worth the trouble to counterfeit (such as common-date Morgan dollars which are only worth bullion value even in high grades) have been found within the market. And while some are very crude, others would fool even a moderately experienced dealer or buyer.

Because of this, I can see a lot of collectors moving over to the UK and other European coin markets because they don't have the obsession with grading as much as US coins do and a coin is graded on its merits rather than whatever "plastic coffin" it is in. Also, a lot of the British coins when compared to their mintages and how old they are, are very reasonably priced. For example, take the Victorian Maundy Sets, low-ish mintages and quality close to proof. You can buy a decent set for ~$250, perhaps a bit more if you demand higher quality and the case, a bit lower if you get a good deal. On the other hand, you aren't going to be able to find a set of 4 US coins in high grade with that old of age for that much. Even the modern Maundy sets seem to be undervalued in regards to their mintages, as are some of the Victorian issues when compared to their corresponding US coins.

The US coin market isn't about coins anymore, its about plastic coffins and green stickers. The only area that really involves coins as a whole are searching through dealer's "junk bins" in hopes of scoring a rarity. The rest is just plastic.

[1949threepence 3,367]

80% final salary pensions

Crikey, that really is generous

My wife's impression of a coin collector shuffling along in his courdroy jacket and smelling of wee is no longer true.

What a charming picture she paints, Peter

I agree about the US market influencing the UK coin market. The US coin market is increasingly turning to grading and condition rarities rather than key dates and attractive coins. For example, there are people who buy mint sets/proof sets in bulk in hopes that they will come back with a high grade to sell on eBay, despite the fact that MS65/66 specimens are easily found for a fraction of the price. No one cares anymore about the grade of the coin so long as it is the "finest known" example of its kind certified by NGC/PCGS. Not even that, there are even services that grade grading services such as CAC. Due to the rise in precious metal prices, coins that normally wouldn't be worth the trouble to counterfeit (such as common-date Morgan dollars which are only worth bullion value even in high grades) have been found within the market. And while some are very crude, others would fool even a moderately experienced dealer or buyer.

Because of this, I can see a lot of collectors moving over to the UK and other European coin markets because they don't have the obsession with grading as much as US coins do and a coin is graded on its merits rather than whatever "plastic coffin" it is in. Also, a lot of the British coins when compared to their mintages and how old they are, are very reasonably priced. For example, take the Victorian Maundy Sets, low-ish mintages and quality close to proof. You can buy a decent set for ~$250, perhaps a bit more if you demand higher quality and the case, a bit lower if you get a good deal. On the other hand, you aren't going to be able to find a set of 4 US coins in high grade with that old of age for that much. Even the modern Maundy sets seem to be undervalued in regards to their mintages, as are some of the Victorian issues when compared to their corresponding US coins.

The US coin market isn't about coins anymore, its about plastic coffins and green stickers. The only area that really involves coins as a whole are searching through dealer's "junk bins" in hopes of scoring a rarity. The rest is just plastic.

Excellent post. You are right about plastic coffins. Indeed, the very word "slabbed" conjures up the inevitable image of the "mortuary slab"

What does worry me is that if the Americans seriously do muscle into our market, the price of some of our coins, will go through the roof in a way not yet envisaged.

[Generic Lad 25]

Oh, I have little doubt that British coin prices will go up with enough American influence.

Consider the 1900 Crown, it has a mintage of 353,356 I believe, it also sells for around bullion-$200 depending on condition. Compare that to the 1895-S Morgan Dollar, it has a higher mintage of 400,000 yet that coin sells for hundreds of dollars in almost good condition and thousands of dollars in mint state. Keep in mind too that the Morgan series wasn't a very popular series with the general public and that millions of coins are found today in uncirculated conditions. Similarly, look at the 1888 crown, it has a mintage of only 131.899 but yet can easily be found in mint state for ~$400 and be found for little more than bullion prices. Compare that to the 1885-CC which has almost double the mintage (238,000) and goes for over $400 even in the lower grades.

Look at how cheap Maundy sets are when compared to their relative mintages too. If Americans start looking at British coins seriously, they will find that there are a lot of (what Americans think) are low mintage coins selling for really cheap when compared to the equivalent American coins. Also, if this happens I'd expect the low-grade "key dates" of series to dramatically increase in value, just look at key-date American coins, you will have some worn slick with nothing more visible than the date and mintmark selling for several hundred dollars. Keep in mind that the mintage of the famous 1916-D Mercury dime (selling for hundreds even on an incredibly worn coin) is 264,000, well above the mintages of several British coins that sell for a fraction of that in better grades...

[scott 144]

americans love their coins to much.

and also with american coins, they mint far more due to larger population so the general % chance of getting that coin out of the entire series is lower then say our lower mintage

[Red Riley 2]

80% final salary pensions

Technically illegal, 66% is the maximum and for most people you would have had to work 40 years for the same employer to get it!

[Peckris 579]

Consider the 1900 Crown, it has a mintage of 353,356 I believe, it also sells for around bullion-$200 depending on condition. Compare that to the 1895-S Morgan Dollar, it has a higher mintage of 400,000 yet that coin sells for hundreds of dollars in almost good condition and thousands of dollars in mint state. Keep in mind too that the Morgan series wasn't a very popular series with the general public and that millions of coins are found today in uncirculated conditions. Similarly, look at the 1888 crown, it has a mintage of only 131.899 but yet can easily be found in mint state for ~$400 and be found for little more than bullion prices. Compare that to the 1885-CC which has almost double the mintage (238,000) and goes for over $400 even in the lower grades.

Interesting comparisons. Just out of interest, how much would a (very common?) 1885-O Morgan dollar fetch in absolute brilliant sparkling UNC condition? The fields are virtually mirror-like, and the raised design has a frosted appearance. Probably not very much?

[Generic Lad 25]

Consider the 1900 Crown, it has a mintage of 353,356 I believe, it also sells for around bullion-$200 depending on condition. Compare that to the 1895-S Morgan Dollar, it has a higher mintage of 400,000 yet that coin sells for hundreds of dollars in almost good condition and thousands of dollars in mint state. Keep in mind too that the Morgan series wasn't a very popular series with the general public and that millions of coins are found today in uncirculated conditions. Similarly, look at the 1888 crown, it has a mintage of only 131.899 but yet can easily be found in mint state for ~$400 and be found for little more than bullion prices. Compare that to the 1885-CC which has almost double the mintage (238,000) and goes for over $400 even in the lower grades.

Interesting comparisons. Just out of interest, how much would a (very common?) 1885-O Morgan dollar fetch in absolute brilliant sparkling UNC condition? The fields are virtually mirror-like, and the raised design has a frosted appearance. Probably not very much?

I'd say around $60-115, or perhaps more. Though Morgans are perhaps the biggest example of grading influencing prices. A coin rated as MS-62 might fetch $75, if the coin was rated MS-64 it might fetch $100, and if it is rated MS-66 it might fetch $300 or so despite there being small differences in eye appeal from MS-64 to MS-66.

[Peckris 579]

Consider the 1900 Crown, it has a mintage of 353,356 I believe, it also sells for around bullion-$200 depending on condition. Compare that to the 1895-S Morgan Dollar, it has a higher mintage of 400,000 yet that coin sells for hundreds of dollars in almost good condition and thousands of dollars in mint state. Keep in mind too that the Morgan series wasn't a very popular series with the general public and that millions of coins are found today in uncirculated conditions. Similarly, look at the 1888 crown, it has a mintage of only 131.899 but yet can easily be found in mint state for ~$400 and be found for little more than bullion prices. Compare that to the 1885-CC which has almost double the mintage (238,000) and goes for over $400 even in the lower grades.

Interesting comparisons. Just out of interest, how much would a (very common?) 1885-O Morgan dollar fetch in absolute brilliant sparkling UNC condition? The fields are virtually mirror-like, and the raised design has a frosted appearance. Probably not very much?

I'd say around $60-115, or perhaps more. Though Morgans are perhaps the biggest example of grading influencing prices. A coin rated as MS-62 might fetch $75, if the coin was rated MS-64 it might fetch $100, and if it is rated MS-66 it might fetch $300 or so despite there being small differences in eye appeal from MS-64 to MS-66.

Thanks. Oh well, I won't retire yet then! (Mind you, it only cost me £12 in 1978 so there you go)

[TomGoodheart 401]

Because of this, I can see a lot of collectors moving over to the UK and other European coin markets because they don't have the obsession with grading as much as US coins do and a coin is graded on its merits rather than whatever "plastic coffin" it is in. Also, a lot of the British coins when compared to their mintages and how old they are, are very reasonably priced. For example, take the Victorian Maundy Sets, low-ish mintages and quality close to proof. You can buy a decent set for ~$250, perhaps a bit more if you demand higher quality and the case, a bit lower if you get a good deal. On the other hand, you aren't going to be able to find a set of 4 US coins in high grade with that old of age for that much. Even the modern Maundy sets seem to be undervalued in regards to their mintages, as are some of the Victorian issues when compared to their corresponding US coins.

Mmm .. I was staying out of the predicting because I didn't have much more to add. However I have just received (as no doubt, a few of you will have done) an email from CNG concerning the possible restrictions on the import of Bulgarian coins to the US. Now why should that matter you might wonder, but of course Bulgarian doesn't just include recent issues and ebay fakes, but also incorporates parts of the Ottoman and Byzantine empires, coins of Thrace, Eastern parts of the Roman Empire, coins of the Emperor Constantine and of Alexander the Great to mention but a few.

If significant swathes of the ancient and medieval numismatic world start to close up to collectors, where will their interests turn? Perhaps to the 'Old World' and the parts of Europe that are not so strongly enforcing the the International Cultural Property Protection programme? To England and it's rich heritage of relatively cheap, accessible and historically interesting coins? I wonder.

[petitioncrown 4]

British Coin forecast 2012

www.petitioncrown.com

The main auctions for 2011 have just been completed and record prices have been achieved. To laugh or to cry at the market, neither will help to change the present continuing demand. Today we should consider what if there is more financial volatility? What will be the level of interest from the US and other markets? At present it is not easy to evaluate future interest based on the present market. A major question is, in which areas of our series are there coins available for new and existing collectors?

We hear what seems to be “much ado about nothing†with reference to investors, these individuals which I hear but fail to encounter. I did hear that the majority of those that start out investing turn into collectors – well, it is new members we welcome to our fraternity.

Large gold coins remain much sought after. For example the ‘Triple Unite’, 4 quality specimens of which were sold off for an average of £150,000 each during Coinex. These are a favourite of the wealthy although most Triple Unites are not so rare; strong prices highlight the presence of new collectors and investors, with an eye for quality taking an interest in our hobby. Quality Silver pieces in comparison seem inexpensive. Base metals still quietly demand higher and higher prices.

Many times we forget the extreme rarity of Scottish and Irish hammered coins. The prices today being far lower than comparative English coins. Bring rarity into the equation and Scottish & Irish prices need to rise.

The forecast for 2012 is clear, subject to the world monetary system continuing as is:

• High grade material which accounts in general for less than 10% of coins appearing on the market is moving ahead by 10%-20%. There are coins of high grade and rarity that are now bringing double, triple the estimates at auction. The fact is that quality with or without rarity is sought after as ‘objects d’art’.

• The middle quality VF+ is advancing at a slightly slower pace as there is a lack of higher quality material to meet present demand.

• The lower quality is attracting very little attention at present and there is no reason to see change in 2012 except if the specimen is an extreme rarity.

The Brady Collection of groats sold at Spinks in London on October 6th. showed the strength of the market. 400 lots of one denomination were all sold. High grade and rarity was 300% + over estimate. The auction forecast £200’000 and sold for £342’000 with new world record prices: Henry IV Groat £23’500, a Tournai Gros/Groat just under £30’000. A sale with wonderful rarities. It makes us remember what wonderful general collections were Slaney, Marshall, Van Roekel +

Lot 290 Brady Collection Tournai Gros/Groat dated 1513

The auction was well covered by CNG & Allan Davisson and others from the US and many UK dealers and collectors. CNG are getting the Seaby spirit and bidding strongly for quality material in the UK market.

The English coin market is attracting overseas attention again from the US and the world market, prices for quality and rarity being just a fraction of prices for US coins.

English Tournai Groat/Gros, Lot 290, The Brady Collection, London, Spinks, 6th Oct 2011 - A SILVER GROAT/GROS (4p piece) of King Henry VIII dated 1513 when Tournai in France was under English rule, these coins are detailed in Spinks Standard Catalogue reference 2317*. Hammer Price with commission for under £ 30’000. This rarity slipped through and was underr

ated by most collectors or dealers, demonstrating there are always opportunities.Coins had been struck in Tournai over a long period and there were skilled craftsman available to undertake the minting of Henry VIII 1513 coinage. The coin was replaced in 1514 by an English portrait Groat, Standard Catalogue reference 2317.

This coin dated 1513 in Latin Numerals is an Extreme Rarity being the earliest English dated coin it is the only one available to collectors of three specimens known, two being in museums.

The world has changed; the internet has created a transfer of information quite instantaneously. What was a quiet hobby dominated by dealers’ lists and fairs, now, ever increasing numbers of collectors and investors can scour the world for coins, information prices and ‘alternative investment opportunities. This is only the start for the ‘Art Market of British coins’.

A consideration is that individuals will take control of their future investment plans. The lack of confidence in ‘paper money’, and inability of governments to keep fiscal controls will emphasize this trend. Pension funds, insurance, financial institutions struggle to deliver results due to the market volatility. A new driver of the hobby can be the preparation for retirement, today we get 80% of our final salary, and the future will give our children maybe 40%

A question I am continually asked is how should the portfolio be split, bullion, rare coins, cash, property, stocks and all the financial tools available – if only I knew the answer! You can go back to farming, we will always need food.

Elizabeth I, Pattern Groat, 3.89g, struck in silver, 1601, crowned facing bust of Queen.

Lot 360 The Brady Collection

A wonderful piece of portraiture

It is still as important as always is that the adviser, agent or dealer who looks after your needs should have a good reputation and be knowledgeable.

As all hobbies it is good to focus on what you understand, diversification in numismatics can bring dangers through lack of knowledge. Buy the book first.

What is driving the market as we enter 2012?

• Demand for quality material outstripping supply

• Provenances

• The internet

• Continual volatility & risk in the investment, pension, banking market creating a heightened level of fear and instability

The ultimate question is what the state of the market will be 2013/14; this requires the wisdom of age and the enthusiasm of the young. Collecting is a passion, a love of the beauty of these pieces of art and the insights to our history they give. – This gives you no answer but is one of the driving forces of a collector.

Geoffrey Cope www.petitioncrown.com

As requested HENRY IV Groat Brady Collection INFORMATION

Henry IV 1399-1413

Light coinage, 1412-13 Groat above.

1399-1412 No Heavy Coinage Groats are known.

3.89g, class II(a), (PII), London, m.m. cross pattée,

legend ends FRANC, annulet to left and pellet to right of crown,

ten arches to tressure, rev. slipped trefoil after POSVI,

reverse barred Ns (N.1359a; S.1727; Potter 2, 2/2 [Pl. viii,6]; Stewartby p.323, PII),

an unusually well struck full round coin, N. extra fine, extremely rare in this condition

Spink 101 Nov 1993 (90)

[pokal02 44]

I've had less spare cash this year and have hardly been able to upgrade any of my crowns, other than nudging a couple of Charles II's from NF to GF. Have been filling in expanding my groat collection (which was one of each reign up to Mary) forward to Charles II & include more varieties, even though I'm having to go closer to F than my preferred VF - think I'll always find something to collect though. Assuming other mid-range collectors are in the same boat, prices of VF coins could drop (or F prices rise?)

[Rob 3,152]

I've had less spare cash this year and have hardly been able to upgrade any of my crowns, other than nudging a couple of Charles II's from NF to GF. Have been filling in expanding my groat collection (which was one of each reign up to Mary) forward to Charles II & include more varieties, even though I'm having to go closer to F than my preferred VF - think I'll always find something to collect though. Assuming other mid-range collectors are in the same boat, prices of VF coins could drop (or F prices rise?)

That's only 2 extra reigns, so shouldn't be too difficult. The Elizabeth won't be difficult to find and you can easily pick up a Charles I Aberystwyth cheaply in VF - in fact it might be harder to get one in fine!

As for where mid-range collectors sit in the event of a market meltdown, the concensus seems to be that the middle will be hardest hit. The bottom will be fairly immune because half of **** all is still **** all, and the top will retain its value better because the people in this range are less affected by liquidity problems - that is, unless banking transactions cease to function.

[Peckris 579]

I've had less spare cash this year and have hardly been able to upgrade any of my crowns, other than nudging a couple of Charles II's from NF to GF. Have been filling in expanding my groat collection (which was one of each reign up to Mary) forward to Charles II & include more varieties, even though I'm having to go closer to F than my preferred VF - think I'll always find something to collect though. Assuming other mid-range collectors are in the same boat, prices of VF coins could drop (or F prices rise?)

That's only 2 extra reigns, so shouldn't be too difficult. The Elizabeth won't be difficult to find and you can easily pick up a Charles I Aberystwyth cheaply in VF - in fact it might be harder to get one in fine!

As for where mid-range collectors sit in the event of a market meltdown, the concensus seems to be that the middle will be hardest hit. The bottom will be fairly immune because half of **** all is still **** all, and the top will retain its value better because the people in this range are less affected by liquidity problems - that is, unless banking transactions cease to function.

I think you mean "all of **** all is still **** all" don't you Rob? There are enough Fine collectors around to ensure the bottom end prices always hold up.

Edited November 4, 2011 by Peckris

[Rob 3,152]

I've had less spare cash this year and have hardly been able to upgrade any of my crowns, other than nudging a couple of Charles II's from NF to GF. Have been filling in expanding my groat collection (which was one of each reign up to Mary) forward to Charles II & include more varieties, even though I'm having to go closer to F than my preferred VF - think I'll always find something to collect though. Assuming other mid-range collectors are in the same boat, prices of VF coins could drop (or F prices rise?)

That's only 2 extra reigns, so shouldn't be too difficult. The Elizabeth won't be difficult to find and you can easily pick up a Charles I Aberystwyth cheaply in VF - in fact it might be harder to get one in fine!

As for where mid-range collectors sit in the event of a market meltdown, the concensus seems to be that the middle will be hardest hit. The bottom will be fairly immune because half of **** all is still **** all, and the top will retain its value better because the people in this range are less affected by liquidity problems - that is, unless banking transactions cease to function.

I think you mean "all of **** all is still **** all" don't you Rob? There are enough Fine collectors around to ensure the bottom end prices always hold up.

No, I mean half because there are plenty of bottom end collectors who will always pay pence for a coin, but having a value offers scope for a price erduction. Therefore **** all has a value when it comes to washers, despite my opinion that many should be melted rather than portrayed as collectable.

Dare I say it, but if the economic proverbial does hit the fan, is it too much to hope the we could have a scenario when even the bottom dredgers start to become discerning? Could this usher in the era when only complete dates are acceptable? I always have difficulties in assessing this area of the market. Granted everyone wants a bargain, but it is difficult for dealers to cater to people wanting to spend pence when the time spent selling the coin is the same, whether it is a 50p, £50 or £500 sale.

Edited November 5, 2011 by Rob

[1949threepence 3,367]

I suppose the bottom end of the market will mainly be kids who are just starting out on the hobby and collecting gap fillers along with the occasional slightly better coin.

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

Maybe the wage freeze is partially responsible for the middle sector bombing.

[Red Riley 2]

I suppose the bottom end of the market will mainly be kids who are just starting out on the hobby and collecting gap fillers along with the occasional slightly better coin.

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

Maybe the wage freeze is partially responsible for the middle sector bombing.

The question is how you collect your coins. All of us are on a limited budget, it is just a question of scale. A low ranking local government worker from Steeple Bumpstead may have £1,000 to spend on coins; he could go for one corker or 10-20 middle grade coins. If he goes for the forer then he has a coin, the latter a collection, which would tell him far more about coins and history in general. Mid-grade coins may get hit in a recession but most of those collecting them aren't investors, so it is of little moment to them if they're in it long-term. And if he manages to hang onto his job through the lean years then he will be able to expand his collection exponentially.

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years - it doesn't cost much and can give many hours of pleasure.

We are all different and there is no right or wrong way to collect. Just go with what suits you.

Edited November 5, 2011 by Red Riley

[Red Riley 2]

Granted everyone wants a bargain, but it is difficult for dealers to cater to people wanting to spend pence when the time spent selling the coin is the same, whether it is a 50p, £50 or £500 sale.

I think you will find this is a gripe in every walk of life, it certainly was when I was flogging pensions and investments. I don't think there is much that can be done about it other than to forget the bottom line for a moment and console yourself with fact that people without two halfpennies to rub together can be just as interesting as captains of industry.

[Rob 3,152]

Granted everyone wants a bargain, but it is difficult for dealers to cater to people wanting to spend pence when the time spent selling the coin is the same, whether it is a 50p, £50 or £500 sale.

I think you will find this is a gripe in every walk of life, it certainly was when I was flogging pensions and investments. I don't think there is much that can be done about it other than to forget the bottom line for a moment and console yourself with fact that people without two halfpennies to rub together can be just as interesting as captains of industry.

An event in the past springs to mind. Someone was looking for a particular date and die number shilling, probably having obtained most of the known varieties given the short list supplied. I had the die number, but the price was about £100, so he turned it down as too expensive. But the question worth considering was that having spent many hundreds, if not thousands of pounds building up the collection, was say x5 the normal amount spent really that much in context. Most people are grateful if you can fill a gap in the collection when you get to this point.

[TomGoodheart 401]

I suppose the bottom end of the market will mainly be kids who are just starting out on the hobby and collecting gap fillers along with the occasional slightly better coin.

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

Maybe the wage freeze is partially responsible for the middle sector bombing.

See, I've always thought of myself as a "middle sector" collector. I currently have 66 coins in my collection which I imagine is a fairly small number. Many of them cost under £100 which is about Spink price for Charles I shillings in Fine and it's very rare for me to spend over £300. In condition, they range from Fair (or Fine on a good day!) to 'as struck' (being hammered they all tend to have some defects but say, decent VF). I buy with money I receive at Chrismas and for my birthday and if I need more .. then I just have to sell another coin. Although the last purchase was effectively with money I was 'lent' by Wifey!

Will I buy less in the near future? Well, in some ways I already do. There are less gaps in my collection, less opportunities to buy the coins I want because they rarely come onto the market. And I'm hoping to gradually upgrade many of the lesser pieces, but again, the reason I haven't before is because I bought the best available at the time and improvements are again not easily found, even if I had the money.

Oh, I dare say that if I had plenty of funds I might well buy a few decent pieces when they come up, since prices seem reasonable. But I'd buy to sell on not to add to my collection.

So am I responsible for the middle market bombing .. maybe!

[DaveG38 405]

I suppose the bottom end of the market will mainly be kids who are just starting out on the hobby and collecting gap fillers along with the occasional slightly better coin.

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

Maybe the wage freeze is partially responsible for the middle sector bombing.

The question is how you collect your coins. All of us are on a limited budget, it is just a question of scale. A low ranking local government worker from Steeple Bumpstead may have £1,000 to spend on coins; he could go for one corker or 10-20 middle grade coins. If he goes for the forer then he has a coin, the latter a collection, which would tell him far more about coins and history in general. Mid-grade coins may get hit in a recession but most of those collecting them aren't investors, so it is of little moment to them if they're in it long-term. And if he manages to hang onto his job through the lean years then he will be able to expand his collection exponentially.

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years - it doesn't cost much and can give many hours of pleasure.

We are all different and there is no right or wrong way to collect. Just go with what suits you.

Well, I'm in the middle grade category - that is, I'd rather spend £100 each on ten coins than £1000 on one top grade one. However, you also have to remember that price increases with age broadly speaking. So, I would expect collectors like me to mostly go for high grade 20thC coins simply because they are plentiful and hence fairly cheap, whilst 19th less so, and 18th C even less so. This means that I tend to have a grade gradient - my 1967 halfpennys are UNC, my 1884 is EF, my 1735 is VF, my 1701 is fine, but my 1689 is poor at best. It's not a hard and fast rule, but top condition older tends to be most expensive and if I want a comprehensive collection, then I still have to spend a lot more for a lower grade the older it gets. From memory the 1967 cost all of £1 whilst the 1689 cost £450. To have got a 1689 in NVF would have cost around £2500 or so, and so I have had to compromise on grade.

What all this means is that, in my opinion, older scarcer coins in middling grades (GF-VF) will hold up in price because there are still plenty of collectors out there wanting specific dates to fill gaps and will pay a good price, even with a premium to get them. For instance, I still want a 1686 halfpenny. If one comes up in UNC (ho,ho) then its out of my league, but in GF I'm in the running and going for it, almost at any reasonable price.

[Red Riley 2]

Well, I'm in the middle grade category - that is, I'd rather spend £100 each on ten coins than £1000 on one top grade one. However, you also have to remember that price increases with age broadly speaking. So, I would expect collectors like me to mostly go for high grade 20thC coins simply because they are plentiful and hence fairly cheap, whilst 19th less so, and 18th C even less so. This means that I tend to have a grade gradient - my 1967 halfpennys are UNC, my 1884 is EF, my 1735 is VF, my 1701 is fine, but my 1689 is poor at best. It's not a hard and fast rule, but top condition older tends to be most expensive and if I want a comprehensive collection, then I still have to spend a lot more for a lower grade the older it gets. From memory the 1967 cost all of £1 whilst the 1689 cost £450. To have got a 1689 in NVF would have cost around £2500 or so, and so I have had to compromise on grade.

What all this means is that, in my opinion, older scarcer coins in middling grades (GF-VF) will hold up in price because there are still plenty of collectors out there wanting specific dates to fill gaps and will pay a good price, even with a premium to get them. For instance, I still want a 1686 halfpenny. If one comes up in UNC (ho,ho) then its out of my league, but in GF I'm in the running and going for it, almost at any reasonable price.

Pretty much agree with that, so perhaps we are getting things wrong when we describe coins in VF as being in the 'soggy centre' and perhaps we should just look at hard values - an Oliver Cromwell crown in VF is hardly middle of the market whereas a dickey mint 1967 penny is stll bottom of the heap regardless. Easy really!

[TomGoodheart 401]

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years

[in best chavlish] Is you disrespectin me an sayin I is Old??

[Peckris 579]

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

The question is how you collect your coins. All of us are on a limited budget, it is just a question of scale. A low ranking local government worker from Steeple Bumpstead may have £1,000 to spend on coins; he could go for one corker or 10-20 middle grade coins. If he goes for the forer then he has a coin, the latter a collection, which would tell him far more about coins and history in general. Mid-grade coins may get hit in a recession but most of those collecting them aren't investors, so it is of little moment to them if they're in it long-term. And if he manages to hang onto his job through the lean years then he will be able to expand his collection exponentially.

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years - it doesn't cost much and can give many hours of pleasure.

We are all different and there is no right or wrong way to collect. Just go with what suits you.

Well, I'm in the middle grade category - that is, I'd rather spend £100 each on ten coins than £1000 on one top grade one. However, you also have to remember that price increases with age broadly speaking. So, I would expect collectors like me to mostly go for high grade 20thC coins simply because they are plentiful and hence fairly cheap, whilst 19th less so, and 18th C even less so. This means that I tend to have a grade gradient - my 1967 halfpennys are UNC, my 1884 is EF, my 1735 is VF, my 1701 is fine, but my 1689 is poor at best. It's not a hard and fast rule, but top condition older tends to be most expensive and if I want a comprehensive collection, then I still have to spend a lot more for a lower grade the older it gets. From memory the 1967 cost all of £1 whilst the 1689 cost £450. To have got a 1689 in NVF would have cost around £2500 or so, and so I have had to compromise on grade.

What all this means is that, in my opinion, older scarcer coins in middling grades (GF-VF) will hold up in price because there are still plenty of collectors out there wanting specific dates to fill gaps and will pay a good price, even with a premium to get them. For instance, I still want a 1686 halfpenny. If one comes up in UNC (ho,ho) then its out of my league, but in GF I'm in the running and going for it, almost at any reasonable price.

There's a lot of good sense being talked, but I think we've missed one important point? And that is, how many of us collect with a clearly identified strategy like some of those mentioned? For myself, coins have come over a long period and from a wide variety of sources :

- from dealers, particularly someone who advised what was good to buy, and who may have had a variety of coins

- from auctions, where single coins were bought for collection, and bulk lots that nevertheless may have contained some items that caught the eye

- from eBay where a particular item may have caught the eye and luck was in with my bid

- from fairs where some coins were bought to sell but then "Oh I can live with that, it's a looker" took over; or irresistibly inexpensive trays

In terms of approach to collecting I'd say I was more of a scott than a Tom - i.e. I have quite a variety of different areas, some of which are better served than others.

As for the top end - if they are high earners or investors, then they will still be buying; but if they are the aforementioned collectors who save up to get only the best when they can afford it, those will drop out much more in a recession. In fact, you could say that the higher the priced coin, the more it will suffer when money is tight? Most of us can afford the bottom end : those who collect them regularly will still be collecting in bad times, as the outlay is modest; people who normally collect higher grades MAY drop down when they can't afford the better grades.

One final point - the bulk of my buying was done in years past, before the great price hikes of recent years. Therefore, coming into play is the double notion of (1) "We've been here before - these prices won't last and will fall before too long" and (2) "When I paid relatively modest sums for good coins, why am I suddenly going to spend 5 or 10 times that for same level of coin?" Of course I WILL for the right coin, but it's getting harder to identify "the right coin", and there don't seem to be bargains anymore (for which I blame eBay).