British Coin Forecast for 2012

[Red Riley 2]

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years

[in best chavlish] Is you disrespectin me an sayin I is Old??

Do what sonny?

[Gary D 76]

I suppose the bottom end of the market will mainly be kids who are just starting out on the hobby and collecting gap fillers along with the occasional slightly better coin.

The top end of the market is for those with money, or those who have a little less money available, but are prepared to save up for the odd quality piece to painstakingly (eventually) assemble a half decent collection ~ I place myself in this letter bracket, and have a second part time job to fund this.

The middle of the market ~ the collectors of mainly mid grade coins ~ well I'm not sure who they are, or what category they fall into. Presumably keen collectors who just don't have the bucks to spend big, but nonetheless want to assemble a collection. There will surely always be folk in this slot, but at a time of severe economic crisis, when money becomes very tight, then other commitments will take over to swallow up all their remaining income.

Maybe the wage freeze is partially responsible for the middle sector bombing.

The question is how you collect your coins. All of us are on a limited budget, it is just a question of scale. A low ranking local government worker from Steeple Bumpstead may have £1,000 to spend on coins; he could go for one corker or 10-20 middle grade coins. If he goes for the forer then he has a coin, the latter a collection, which would tell him far more about coins and history in general. Mid-grade coins may get hit in a recession but most of those collecting them aren't investors, so it is of little moment to them if they're in it long-term. And if he manages to hang onto his job through the lean years then he will be able to expand his collection exponentially.

Collectors of low-grade coins can, in my experience, also be the elderly who are on a very limited budget and want an absorbing hobby for their twilight years - it doesn't cost much and can give many hours of pleasure.

We are all different and there is no right or wrong way to collect. Just go with what suits you.

Completely off-topic but Red why did you mention Steeple Bumpstead, not exactly the centre of the earth. Are you local to that area?

[TomGoodheart 401]

In terms of approach to collecting I'd say I was more of a scott than a Tom - i.e. I have quite a variety of different areas, some of which are better served than others.

Ah, yes. I collect all sorts (I've just picked up a very nice 1983 fake £1 coin. Appears to be gold plated lead!) But Charles shillings are generally the only coins I actually buy!

[Red Riley 2]

Completely off-topic but Red why did you mention Steeple Bumpstead, not exactly the centre of the earth. Are you local to that area?

I don't even know where it is. Just the most ludicrous name for an English town that I could think of (didn't Reginald Perrin refer to somebody having a 'degree in applied manure from the University of Steeple Bumpstead?). It was a toss up between there and Chipping Sodbury.

[1949threepence 3,367]

One final point - the bulk of my buying was done in years past, before the great price hikes of recent years. Therefore, coming into play is the double notion of (1) "We've been here before - these prices won't last and will fall before too long" and (2) "When I paid relatively modest sums for good coins, why am I suddenly going to spend 5 or 10 times that for same level of coin?" Of course I WILL for the right coin, but it's getting harder to identify "the right coin", and there don't seem to be bargains anymore (for which I blame eBay).

Just as a matter of interest, why do you blame e bay for the lack of bargains ?

Some excellent points in all the posts above above, and I'm not going to argue with any of them. I think there is merit in all our arguments, for different reasons, and maybe covering different types/eras of collections.

One thing is certain: the top grade is outing everything at the moment. This was illustrated tonight when a group of high grade buns were auctioned on e bay by buckscoins. An 1878 described as EF, but good looking and with lustre, went for just £86, a much less scarce 1879, described as AU went for £90, and an UNC 1894 went for £200.

Edited November 6, 2011 by 1949threepence

[1949threepence 3,367]

Completely off-topic but Red why did you mention Steeple Bumpstead, not exactly the centre of the earth. Are you local to that area?

I know Steeple Bumpstead. It's a village near Braintree.

Chipping Sodbury is in Wiltshire, I think (or Gloucestershire) ~ one of the two.

[Red Riley 2]

One thing is certain: the top grade is outing everything at the moment. This was illustrated tonight when a group of high grade buns were auctioned on e bay by buckscoins. An 1878 described as EF, but good looking and with lustre, went for just £86, a much less scarce 1879, described as AU went for £90, and an UNC 1894 went for £200.

I noticed that. In fact I bought the 1878. Looked like a bargain - let you know when I get it...

£200 for an 1894, however good is way over the top. A quick search of the internet should get you an equally good coin a good deal cheaper. Looking at the images, there didn't seem to be a lot between these coins and I rather felt people were bidding purely on the strength of the quoted grade rather than looking at the image and assessing it themselves.

Edited November 7, 2011 by Red Riley

[declanwmagee 122]

I rather felt people were bidding purely on the strength of the quoted grade rather than looking at the image and assessing it themselves.

Yes Derek, I've noticed the punters do that. In fact, I stopped quoting grades under aUNC for that reason. I was sick of seeing coins I'd quoted as EF+ (which, in my book, is a bloody good grade) getting left behind by lesser coins quoted by less tough graders as UNC. Of course, I still use aUNC, UNC, and BU for the same reason!

It's possible that people typing "UNC" in their searches has a lot to do with it, not just lazy shopping.

[Accumulator 52]

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Edited November 7, 2011 by Accumulator

[1949threepence 3,367]

One thing is certain: the top grade is outing everything at the moment. This was illustrated tonight when a group of high grade buns were auctioned on e bay by buckscoins. An 1878 described as EF, but good looking and with lustre, went for just £86, a much less scarce 1879, described as AU went for £90, and an UNC 1894 went for £200.

I noticed that. In fact I bought the 1878. Looked like a bargain - let you know when I get it...

£200 for an 1894, however good is way over the top. A quick search of the internet should get you an equally good coin a good deal cheaper. Looking at the images, there didn't seem to be a lot between these coins and I rather felt people were bidding purely on the strength of the quoted grade rather than looking at the image and assessing it themselves.

Well done on that 1878, Derek. I think you got a stunning bargain there. I bought my "very high grade" 1878 for £137.00 back in February this year. Here are the reverses of the two, side by side. Don't think there's much difference:-

I reckon you will make a good profit on that.

You are definitely right about buyers being attracted to the quoted grade, between what were essentially very similar quality coins. Shows the fundamental gullibility of buyers who are unable to make their own mind up in the grade/attractiveness equation.

[Red Riley 2]

You are definitely right about buyers being attracted to the quoted grade, between what were essentially very similar quality coins. Shows the fundamental gullibility of buyers who are unable to make their own mind up in the grade/attractiveness equation.

Don't get me wrong, I am not casting aspersions(?) on Chris Taylor's grading at all, I just suspect that some bidders may have been bidding the grade, not the coin.

[1949threepence 3,367]

You are definitely right about buyers being attracted to the quoted grade, between what were essentially very similar quality coins. Shows the fundamental gullibility of buyers who are unable to make their own mind up in the grade/attractiveness equation.

Don't get me wrong, I am not casting aspersions(?) on Chris Taylor's grading at all, I just suspect that some bidders may have been bidding the grade, not the coin.

Oh absolutely. His grading was spot on IMO, but bidders were chasing the grade, not the coins themselves, which is a pity.