How we stand/compare today as a collector

[coin watch 1]

I think it's pretty evident that most (if not all) coin prices have increased considerably over the past decade, and has been discussed on these forums (and other places) a number of times it does seem to be a growing trend at the moment if in the most part at the top end of the market.

So with the current prices in mind as a relating factor it is the 'trend' I would like to ask about, what I mean is "how we stand/compare today as a collector" to say the ealy 1970's?

When the current market situation is talked about lately I often also read about the increases that took place in the early 70's, as I was more interested in my train set and action man in the 70's I can't judge it, so I would like to know (hopefully from those who remember) does this current trend really relate so closely to that era? Or after the rise and crash between the 70's 80's & 90's are we only now experiencing a correction?

[TomGoodheart 403]

Interesting question. Unfortunately in the 1970s I was mostly interested in listening to Black Sabbath and looking for a girlfriend that liked science fiction ...

But out of curiosity I looked at Seaby's 1972 catalogue. The catalogue itself is priced at £1.25. Given Spink's is now £25 and although larger I reckon the price of publishing is now cheaper (given it's probably printed in China) I've assumed a similar ratio for the prices quoted, ie: 20x just for fun.

Taking the first issue of Charles I shillings (A1/1) which was £11 in fine (prices aren't given for higher grades) in 1972, multiplying by 20 would take that to £220. Whereas the Spink price is, what? £125? Similarly the later common 'Briot style' bust im triangle was £5 converting to £100 today. Whereas in real life you'd pick one up for £50.

Of course, that's a pretty random calculation, given that the relative prices for things is not fixed. While a loaf of bread might have kept pace with inflation, not so for a pocket calculator. My first 'scientific' one was £55. Which doesn't compare very well with my daughter's phone which was 'free' on a contract costing only double her weekly pocket money. Given my pocket money in 1972 was about 12½ p and daughter's phone has a brain the size of a planet (almost literally as it's connected to the internet) technology clearly has become (relatively) much cheaper.

Which is a long rambling way of saying, maybe coins are still (relatively) cheap?

[Peckris 579]

I think it's pretty evident that most (if not all) coin prices have increased considerably over the past decade, and has been discussed on these forums (and other places) a number of times it does seem to be a growing trend at the moment if in the most part at the top end of the market.

So with the current prices in mind as a relating factor it is the 'trend' I would like to ask about, what I mean is "how we stand/compare today as a collector" to say the ealy 1970's?

When the current market situation is talked about lately I often also read about the increases that took place in the early 70's, as I was more interested in my train set and action man in the 70's I can't judge it, so I would like to know (hopefully from those who remember) does this current trend really relate so closely to that era? Or after the rise and crash between the 70's 80's & 90's are we only now experiencing a correction?

Between 1965 and 1975 there were unique circumstances prevailing. Worldwide, there was definitely an upsurge in interest in coins, but in the UK this was exaggerated by decimalisation. That created an absurd demand for modern circulating coins which rose far quicker than pre-1887 coins. It all collapsed spectacularly after 1971 but due to genuine interest in older coins partly underwritten by stock market falls (the oil crisis), pre-20th Century coins began their rise in the mid-70s.

This again reached absurd heights between 1979-80, after which things stagnated for 15 years or so. Coins were very underpriced in the mid-1990s, and have been undergoing corrections ever since. It's fair to say that eBay is the complicating factor this time around.

So the answer is "yes and no". Yes, whenever coins are underpriced and interest is there, then market forces will come into play. No, in the sense that the driving external factors were completely different in the 1970s.

[coin watch 1]

Interesting thoughts, thanks.

I like the comparisons given with Seaby's 1972, food for thought there!

With regard to the "unique circumstances" of the 70's, this is the thought I have been having when trying to relate the market changes we are now seeing, like the 70's I think we are now in another "unique" but very different situation with all that's going on and because of this I thought the talk in comparing now with 40 (odd) years back....well I don't think we can, so I suppose just use that time as a 'maybe' of what the next decade could hold.

I think with the thoughts given with the Seaby example I think is a good guide to how general collector coins can withstand the long term.

[numismatist 2]

Collectors were generally able to take their pick before 1970, but by about 1975

many coins had risen perhaps three fold , and the large " English Gentlemen "

type of dealers like Seabys were brought to their knees as their stock had been

so depleted they could never hope to fill their cabinets again, as to buy their

say 1960's stock would have taken perhps three times the capital investment. On

top of that they were being attacked from within, by thefts of their coins and

their clients data files were offered all around the world to dealers by the

thiefs. Seabys were also slow to keep up with the prices rises and there were many

bargains to be had. Baldwins were like a gentlemans club , and it took a lot of

acceptance before you were allowed into the inner sanctom and they were also slow

to adapt on current price , so their Cabinets housed many bargains which were

taken by the handful to Spinks , who had tended to keep up with the price rises

and were paying a more up to date price, and so they were great days to make money

but even though that was so ,by the time prices flattened out very few who had been

dealing in coins could never afford to buy the amount and quality of coins they

could a few years earlier. So I think it was a good time for astute collectors and

on the whole a bad time for dealers as many eventually went to the wall and only

a relative few survived. The latest boom time has many differant factors at play

so who knows what the outcome may be ? My feelings are that as the previous booms

in Gold and Silver brought similar percentage price increases in Coins the same is

happening this time, but this boom is stronger and seems to have taken hold this

time.

[Rob 3,152]

Anyone buying today has an uphill task relative to the collectors or dealers of 40 or 50 years ago as the price of coins relative to inflation has vastly outstripped the latter. Looking back through old catalogues at the prices obtained at auction, 6 or 7 years ago I was using a multiplier of about 50 times for Lockett coins coming back on the market, so a £10 coin in the mid-late 50s was selling for about £500 in 2005ish. That multiple has increased to nearer 100 times today for many items. That applies as a rough guide to silver. For copper and bronze the increase is even more mind-boggling because relatively few people collected them prior to the 1960s.

Although only an anecdote, the increase in prices was put into perspective by a collector who casually mentioned that a certain coin cost him one shilling and threepence in the 1940s. Today that coin books in Spink at over £1K in fine!

Edited March 6, 2012 by Rob

[TomGoodheart 403]

I think the whole market (and not just for coins) has changed so significantly it's impossible to compare today with even 20 years ago let alone the 1970s.

Then, as Numismatist says, you needed to buy through the dealers and were limited to what was in the trays on the day you visited, or impressing them enough that they would contact you when new stock came in. There was information about coins, but it was limited to a few journals available on subscription and a handful of books, like North, Peck.

Nowadays you can view dozens of coins on ebay alone. You can search auction catalogues as far afield as Australia, Germany or the US online. Instead of being limited to the few people you meet at your local coin club, you can chat to collectors around the globe and compare coins and information without ever leaving home.

I myself have built up my entire collection since 2004, almost all online and through contacts with other collectors. I have copies of published papers, am aware of collections and collectors, I might never even have heard about if I had to rely solely on the interests of collectors local to me. And as we know, knowledge is power!

Potentially very rare coins can become common knowledge and instead of one or two other collectors seeking a variety it could be dozens or more. Yes, people still keep aquisitions close to their chests but when something is bought from ebay or an auction house it's much more likely another collector will spot it and learn of its existence than 20 or 40 years ago.

All of this has an effect on prices in that collectors wishing to specialise can become more knowledgable more quickly and see more examples (and therefore build a better sense of how scarce and so how much to pay) than ever before. People see better coins, better provenance and want them. Yes, there are people who just rely on ebay, just as in the 1970s I expect some relied on their local antique or 'coin and stamp' shop. But if you want to leave that behind and shop with the 'big boys' (sorry Debbie!) I think it's a lot easier to do so than 40 years ago.

[coin watch 1]

I think the whole market (and not just for coins) has changed so significantly it's impossible to compare today with even 20 years ago let alone the 1970s.

Then, as Numismatist says, you needed to buy through the dealers and were limited to what was in the trays on the day you visited, or impressing them enough that they would contact you when new stock came in. There was information about coins, but it was limited to a few journals available on subscription and a handful of books, like North, Peck.

Nowadays you can view dozens of coins on ebay alone. You can search auction catalogues as far afield as Australia, Germany or the US online. Instead of being limited to the few people you meet at your local coin club, you can chat to collectors around the globe and compare coins and information without ever leaving home.

I myself have built up my entire collection since 2004, almost all online and through contacts with other collectors. I have copies of published papers, am aware of collections and collectors, I might never even have heard about if I had to rely solely on the interests of collectors local to me. And as we know, knowledge is power!

Potentially very rare coins can become common knowledge and instead of one or two other collectors seeking a variety it could be dozens or more. Yes, people still keep aquisitions close to their chests but when something is bought from ebay or an auction house it's much more likely another collector will spot it and learn of its existence than 20 or 40 years ago.

All of this has an effect on prices in that collectors wishing to specialise can become more knowledgable more quickly and see more examples (and therefore build a better sense of how scarce and so how much to pay) than ever before. People see better coins, better provenance and want them. Yes, there are people who just rely on ebay, just as in the 1970s I expect some relied on their local antique or 'coin and stamp' shop. But if you want to leave that behind and shop with the 'big boys' (sorry Debbie!) I think it's a lot easier to do so than 40 years ago.

Some really interesting views here. It does seem the more open market today has made the whole collecting experience a much more enjoyable one. With some of these points in mind I would like to think even with the recent market rises in coins that the eventual outcome this time would differ considerably to the previous boom and bust as mentioned. One would hope!

[coin watch 1]

Collectors were generally able to take their pick before 1970, but by about 1975

many coins had risen perhaps three fold , and the large " English Gentlemen "

type of dealers like Seabys were brought to their knees as their stock had been

so depleted they could never hope to fill their cabinets again, as to buy their

say 1960's stock would have taken perhps three times the capital investment. On

top of that they were being attacked from within, by thefts of their coins and

their clients data files were offered all around the world to dealers by the

thiefs. Seabys were also slow to keep up with the prices rises and there were many

bargains to be had. Baldwins were like a gentlemans club , and it took a lot of

acceptance before you were allowed into the inner sanctom and they were also slow

to adapt on current price , so their Cabinets housed many bargains which were

taken by the handful to Spinks , who had tended to keep up with the price rises

and were paying a more up to date price, and so they were great days to make money

but even though that was so ,by the time prices flattened out very few who had been

dealing in coins could never afford to buy the amount and quality of coins they

could a few years earlier. So I think it was a good time for astute collectors and

on the whole a bad time for dealers as many eventually went to the wall and only

a relative few survived. The latest boom time has many differant factors at play

so who knows what the outcome may be ? My feelings are that as the previous booms

in Gold and Silver brought similar percentage price increases in Coins the same is

happening this time, but this boom is stronger and seems to have taken hold this

time.

Can't be a bad thing to get away from this "Gentlemans club" way of dealing!! I think if this sort of thing was still going on in todays market then the prospect of another bust would be much stronger!

[Rob 3,152]

Collectors were generally able to take their pick before 1970, but by about 1975

many coins had risen perhaps three fold , and the large " English Gentlemen "

type of dealers like Seabys were brought to their knees as their stock had been

so depleted they could never hope to fill their cabinets again, as to buy their

say 1960's stock would have taken perhps three times the capital investment. On

top of that they were being attacked from within, by thefts of their coins and

their clients data files were offered all around the world to dealers by the

thiefs. Seabys were also slow to keep up with the prices rises and there were many

bargains to be had. Baldwins were like a gentlemans club , and it took a lot of

acceptance before you were allowed into the inner sanctom and they were also slow

to adapt on current price , so their Cabinets housed many bargains which were

taken by the handful to Spinks , who had tended to keep up with the price rises

and were paying a more up to date price, and so they were great days to make money

but even though that was so ,by the time prices flattened out very few who had been

dealing in coins could never afford to buy the amount and quality of coins they

could a few years earlier. So I think it was a good time for astute collectors and

on the whole a bad time for dealers as many eventually went to the wall and only

a relative few survived. The latest boom time has many differant factors at play

so who knows what the outcome may be ? My feelings are that as the previous booms

in Gold and Silver brought similar percentage price increases in Coins the same is

happening this time, but this boom is stronger and seems to have taken hold this

time.

Can't be a bad thing to get away from this "Gentlemans club" way of dealing!! I think if this sort of thing was still going on in todays market then the prospect of another bust would be much stronger!

The choicest pieces will always find their way into the hands of a select few. Granted we all have 24/7 access to coins, but if you have something special in whatever issue, then there will always be a person with a lot of money willing to take it off your hands. Those things don't come to market as a rule, being sold privately, with or wothout an intermediary. It's the path of least resistance for a dealer as well.